World Cup 2026 Group D betting preview & team guide
Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
Tournament co-hosts USA are the favourites to top World Cup 2026 Group D but this looks like an incredibly competitive batch of four. With Turkiye, Paraguay and Australia joining the USMNT in the opening round this has the potential to be a proverbial group of death.
World Cup 2026 Group D winner betting odds
- USA – 11/8
- Turkiye – 7/4
- Paraguay – 15/4
- Australia – 7/1
*All odds correct as of 29th May, 2026 on bet365.com
Group D guide
USA
Overview
The USA have been regulars at the World Cup since 1990, missing just one of the last nine editions of the international showpiece. Their best result during that run was a quarter-final appearance in Japan and Korea in 2002 but in the very first edition of the World Cup they reached the semi-finals and finished third in 1930 in Uruguay. Former Spurs and PSG boss Mauricio Pochettino is in charge to oversee this home bid, while they have a smattering of real quality throughout their squad including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Antonee Robinson.
Strengths
Home advantage is one obvious strength for Team USA and the last time they hosted this tournament in 1994 they exceeded expectations by reaching the last 16. In Pochettino they have a tactically astute coach who has experience at the very highest level in European club football and they look well-staffed in attack with Pulisic, Folarin Balogun and Haji Wright among their options.
Weaknesses
This incarnation of the Stars and Stripes has shown defensive vulnerabilities under Pochettino, particularly when trying to play out from the back. They are also lacking in strength and depth and have limited goalkeeping options, with New York City FC’s Matt Freese their first choice at present.
Prospects
There is real pressure on the USA to deliver as co-hosts and Pochettino has stressed at regular intervals that he feels his team can shock the world and go all the way, stating they “need to believe” they can land the top prize. In reality, they would probably view a run to the quarter-finals as a strong tournament and getting out of this group isn’t necessarily a straightforward task.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Third place (1930)
Key player: Christian Pulisic
Rising star: Alex Freeman
USA predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): : Freese; Ream, Richards, McKenzie; Dest, Adams, McKennie, Robinson; Weah, Pulisic; Balogun
Best Bet – USA to win Group D at 11/8
All of the teams in this group are capable of taking points off of each other but home advantage could be massive for the USA if the fans get behind them. They also played group rivals Paraguay and Australia in home friendly games last year and won both of those fixtures, and they might be able to justify their favouritism by finishing at the top of Group D.
Turkiye
Overview
Turkiye have qualified for the World Cup for just the third time in their history after edging out Romania and then Kosovo in qualifying play-offs. The Crescent-Stars are back in the biggest tournament in international football after a 24-year absence but they made a real mark the last time they competed at a World Cup, reaching the semi-finals in Japan and Korea before losing out to eventual winners Brazil and then winning the third-place match.
Strengths
Former Italy international Vincenzo Montella has been in charge of Turkiye since 2023 and he guided them to the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 so they have big tournament experience even if this is a first World Cup for the players. Turkiye are a team that control possession and dictate play in the midfield areas, and they have some exciting talent in the wide areas in the shape of rising stars Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız.
Weaknesses
Turkiye have some real quality in attack but they are lacking an out-and-out goalscorer and a clinical cutting edge. They also look a little lightweight in defence and in goal and are susceptible to the occasional collapse, such as a 6-0 defeat at home to Spain during qualifying.
Prospects
Turkiye feel like a team that could be capable of beating anyone on a good day but they are also prone to sub-par performances and can struggle against well-organised and defensively minded sides. They are capable of making deep runs in tournaments, however, and their run at Euro 2024 suggests they could be contenders for a last 16 spot at World Cup 2026.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Third Place (2002)
Key player: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Rising star: Arda Güler
Turkiye predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Çakır; Müldür, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu; Çalhanoğlu, Yüksek; Güler, Kökçü, Yıldız; Aktürkoğlu
Best Bet: Turkiye to reach the round of 16 at 11/8
Turkiye are the most likely contenders to deny USA top spot but the fact they can be inconsistent means they could end up scraping through the groups but then raising their levels as the tournament progresses. They have very recent knockout football experience after coming through the play-offs to quality for the USA, Mexico and Canada and that could set them up nicely for a run to at least the last 16 of this tournament.
Paraguay
Overview
Paraguay have missed the last three World Cups but they enjoyed a strong qualification campaign, losing just four of their 18 games, and they’re back at the big event for the ninth time in their history. Los Guaraníes don’t have a great deal of star quality within their squad and the majority of their team play their club football in South America
Strengths
Paraguay boss Gustavo Alfaro has instilled an incredibly work ethic into his squad with the focus on defensive solidity and organisation. They are particularly strong in the heart of defence where Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete have formed a formidable partnership, and when it comes to attack they are particularly effective from set pieces.
Weaknesses
Paraguay don’t have a great deal of individual quality and they are lacking any real star names among their squad. Los Guaraníes have little strength in depth so their options on the bench are limited but their biggest weakness perhaps comes in attack. Paraguay only scored 14 goals in their 18 qualifiers and that lack of cutting edge could be incredibly costly in a major tournament. They also rely heavily on Miguel Almirón’s efforts on the wing and if he is marked out of the game they have little else to offer.
Prospects
Reaching the tournament after missing the last three already ranks as a major achievement for Paraguay but they will feel they are capable of at least reaching the knockout stages, particularly as third place could be enough to progress. However, their issues in front of goal suggest a deep run in the tournament is unlikely.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Quarter-Finals (2010)
Key player: Miguel Almirón
Rising star: Julio Enciso
Scotland predicted lineup (4-4-2): Fernández; Cáceres, Gómez, Alderete, Alonso; Gómez, Cubas, Bobadilla, Almirón; Enciso, Sanabria
Best Bet – Julio Enciso top team goalscorer
Given the way Paraguay play to frustrate their opponents they could be a real force in Group D if they are able to execute their game-plan, but a lack of goals also makes them look interesting candidates not to qualify at 6/4. It may be best to avoid the team markets and instead focus on the player bets and Strasbourg forward Julio Enciso is a contender to top their scoring charts. Encisco has four international goals to his name and has had a reasonable season with Le Racing. The 22-year-old has a bit of guile and class about his play and could emerge as Paraguay’s danger man.
Australia
Overview
Australia have become World Cup regulars over the course of the last 20 years and the 2026 edition of the event marks their sixth consecutive appearance and their seventh overall. The Socceroos do benefit from a weak qualifying region, however, but they did manage to make their mark in Qatar last time with two group stage wins as they reached the last 16 for the second time.
Strengths
Australia have an athletic and youthful squad and head coach Tony Popovic has instilled a real sense of discipline and organisation within the current squad, whereas previous incarnations of the Socceroos were perhaps tactically naive. There aren’t too many star names among Popovic’s options but they do have a reliable stopper in former Brighton keeper Mathew Ryan, who currently plays his club football in Spain with Levante. Mentally the Australians are often particularly strong across all sporting disciplines and they are no different when it comes to football.
Weaknesses
Australia has produced some exceptional footballers over the course of the last few decades but right now they are lacking genuine star quality. There are also occasional issues with squad cohesion as a number of players play their club football in Europe and will miss some international breaks, while squad depth may also hinder their chances.
Prospects
The Socceroos are the underdogs in this group but they are capable of punching above their weight and qualifying for the knockout stages seems a realistic goal. One win may be enough for progress given that third place may be enough to avoid a group stage exit, and Australia managed two victories in Qatar.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Round of 16 (2006, 2022)
Key player: Jackson Irvine
Rising star: Alessandro Circati
Haiti predicted lineup (3-4-3): Ryan; Circati, Souttar, Burgess; Miller, Irvine, O’Neill, Aziz; Irankunda, McGree, Duke
Best Bet – Australia to qualify at 10/11
Australia are the underdogs in Group D but this is arguably the most competitive group in the competition and a real case can be made for all four nations to qualify or even win the group. The Socceroos are lacking real star talent but they are tactically solid and have been in good form in general over the course of the last 12 months or so. They look decent value at 10/11 to qualify for the next round and could even defy the odds and top this pile at 7/1 if luck is on their side.
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