Aston Villa vs Swansea City Predictions

After a couple of poor defensive efforts, Villa needed to tighten up on Boxing Day, though despite having the better of the contest against QPR, Dean Smith’s men were unable to come out on top. Saturday’s hosts have now kept just one clean sheet in their last six, which is worrying, especially as they’re a side that wants to challenge for promotion.

Like many teams, Aston Villa seem to deliver contrasting performances at either end of the pitch. Going forward, they rarely go without creating chances; they’re averaging 1.48 expected goals and currently rank as the Championship’s fifth best team in terms of expected goals for, while they’ve also scored the second most goals. However, only six teams in the division have conceded more goals than Villa, while they rank in the bottom half in terms of both shots against and expected goals against.

A lack of defensive solidity is the main reason as to why the Villans have won just one of their last six and is also why they’ve kept just a single clean sheet during that time. Even at home, where they’ve scored a pleasing 2.31 goals on average, Saturday’s hosts have looked very suspect at the back. They’ve shipped an average of 1.85 goals and are giving up a worrying average of 1.75 expected goals. Again, as a side challenging for promotion, such defensive numbers are not good enough.

In general, Swansea don’t offer as much as Villa going forward, but they’ve given less away on their travels than the hosts have at home, so it’s not all difficult to fancy them at the prices. Graham Potter’s men have shipped just 1.08 goals on average away from home this season. Their average of 1.35 expected goals against does suggest that they ought to have conceded a few more goals, but it also tells us that they’re reasonably good at stopping teams from creating too much. At the very least, it tells us that they’ve given less chances away on the road than Villa have at home.

In all honesty, for all they are a good side going forward, Villa’s dodgy defence makes them very tough to fancy, especially at the prices. Swansea are no strangers to getting a result on their travels and their superior defensive numbers make them stand out as decent bet ahead of this match. All things considered, a play on ‘Swansea Draw No Bet’ appears to represent a slither of a value.