Barnsley vs Southend Predictions

Their form may have dipped prior to last Saturday’s low-key win over Bristol Rovers, but Barnsley remain one of the best teams in League One, especially on their own patch, where they’re unbeaten. Having regained the winning thread last time out, Daniel Stendel’s men will be looking to collect another three points when they welcome Southend to Oakwell on Saturday afternoon.

Barnsley did hit a bit of a snag when losing twice on the bounce a couple of weeks ago, though both of those defeats came on the road. When playing in front of their own fans, Stendel’s side have been very, very tough to get the better of.

They’re currently unbeaten at Oakwell, while they’ve scored a pleasing 12 goals and have conceded just five at the other end. Such stats bode well, but it is their underlying numbers that are impressive. Sometimes teams can look better than they are thanks to a few undeserved goals or the odd unlikely screamer, though that’s certainly not the case with Barnsley, who’re averaging 2.03 expected goals and 1.03 expected goals against at home.

Southend are no mugs, but they’re better on their own patch than they are on their travels, so the hosts ought to fancy their chances.

Chris Powell’s visitors have delivered some good performances away from the comforts of home this season, but they were outclassed by Sunderland last time out, losing by three goals to nil at Stadium of Light. If that display is anything to go by, then the Shrimpers could struggle to land a glove on the Tykes at Oakwell.

From an offensive point of view, Southend will offer more than several teams at this level; they’re capable of creating scoring opportunities, while in Simon Cox and Tom Hopper they have two forwards who’re both capable of scoring regular goals; however their attacking efforts on the road haven’t outweighed their defensive weaknesses by anywhere near enough to suggest that they can get the better of a strong Barnsley side. The Shrimpers are averaging 1.59 expected goals for on their travels, but they’re conceding an average of 1.35, while they’re also conceding more actual goals than they’re scoring on average.

There was plenty to like about the way Barnsley got the better of Bristol Rovers last weekend – they kept things simple, gave little away and made their forward quality pay – and a similar performance would almost certainly see them record a similar result. With the hosts simply looking stronger both going forward and at the back, and with the underlying numbers being very much in Barnsley’s favour, they’re once again backed to come out on top in routine fashion.