Brazil vs Japan Predictions

• Japan have lost only once across their previous 16 internationals
• That run includes a 3-2 win over Brazil in October
• Brazil struggled against Morocco in their only true test at this tournament so far
• Japan beat both Spain and Germany at the 2022 World Cup

First true test for Ancelotti’s Brazil

Brazil eased through their group thanks to back-to-back 3-0 victories, but those wins over Haiti and Scotland didn’t tell us a lot about Carlo Ancelotti’s side.

The five-time world champions underwhelmed against Morocco in their tournament opener, and their last 32 clash with Japan is their first true test since that 1-1 draw.

The Japanese progressed through their group after going unbeaten across their three matches, and they beat Brazil 3-2 as recently as October.

Japan aim for first knockout success

Although Japan have made every World Cup since 1998, getting out of the group stage on four occasions, they’ve never won a knockout match at the tournament.

Japan have had some near misses in recent years, blowing a 2-0 lead to lose to Belgium in 2018, while they lost on penalties to Paraguay in 2010 and Croatia in 2022.

Their defeat four years ago felt like a real missed opportunity, having beaten Spain and Germany in the group stage. Beating those two nations 2-1 while losing 1-0 to Costa Rica highlights Japan’s issues; they seem better suited to holding off bigger nations.

That wasn’t the case in the group stage, as they thumped Tunisia 4-0 alongside draws with the Netherlands and Sweden. Those results have maintained Samurai Blue’s unbeaten streak, and they’ve only been beaten once across their last 16 fixtures.

Japan to go the distance again

Despite Japan’s history of falling short in World Cup knockout matches, two of their last three have gone to penalties. Their defeat to Belgium saw them concede a 94th-minute winner, so they should be able to hold firm against a Brazilian side that struggled to get going in their most difficult game of the tournament so far.

Japan started the year with friendly victories in Scotland and England, and they aren’t a side that Brazil can afford to take lightly.

Brazil’s midfield has been easily overrun at this tournament, with the Selecao looking second best through the first half of their draw with Morocco before the sides seemed to settle for a point. The energy Japan bring should pose a problem for Ancelotti’s side, and they should avoid the early defensive mistakes that both Haiti and Scotland made against the Selecao.

Vinicius is the only player who has delivered for Brazil in every game, and his talent will be tough for Japan to shut down. However, Samurai Blue have plenty of guile in forward areas, and they can take this one to extra time at least.