South Africa vs Canada Predictions

• South Africa have scored in their previous two World Cup games
• Six of Bafana Bafana’s eight games before the tournament saw both teams score
• Canada have seen BTTS land in three of their last four matches
• Larin has scored in two of Canada’s three games after ending the Championship season in form

Soft landing after Canada fall short

Co-hosts Canada have lost home advantage for the remainder of the World Cup thanks to their 2-1 defeat to Switzerland. As Group B winners, the Swiss will stay in Vancouver for their first knockout game and their last 16 clash if they make it that far.

Canada can at least expect a strong travelling support to follow them to Los Angeles, as they prepare for their first knockout match at a World Cup. They’ve also landed on their feet in terms of opposition, with a South Africa side that is ranked 60th in the world leaping from last place in Group A to second.

Familiar concerns for Jesse Marsch’s side

Canada only needed a point in their final group game to secure top spot, and it showed in the first half as they recorded just 30% possession and 0.29 Expected Goals. They gave up chances to the Swiss, and they were quickly punished in the second half.

Canada’s only clean sheet at this tournament came against a Qatar side that was shown a red card in either half in a 6-0 drubbing. They still conceded a couple of opportunities early in that one when it was 11 v 11, and those defensive issues could be a problem against South Africa.

Bafana Bafana were dreadful against Mexico in the tournament opener, but they were able to create chances against Czechia and South Korea in their final two matches. They had a combined 2.54 Expected Goals across those two matches, and they should be able to trouble Canada defensively.

Larin can make the difference for Canada

The opening knockout clash should see some chances, with both teams scoring in three of South Africa’s four matches at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. Three of their four World Cup warm-ups also saw BTTS land, and Bafana Bafana have only shut out Nicaragua and South Korea across their last 12 matches.

Canada have failed to score only once in eight matches, and their partnership between Jonathan David and Cyle Larin has impressed up top. While David has scored three goals to Larin’s two, the Southampton loanee has been the more consistent player.

Larin has recorded a shot on target in all three games at this tournament. He came off the bench to rescue Canada against Bosnia in their opener, ending a poor run which saw him score only once across 24 international appearances. His form turned around after a good stretch in the Championship, scoring eight in 16 for Southampton before the playoffs. He can maintain his strong scoring form in 2026 with a strike against South Africa.