Brazil vs Qatar Predictions

After what was ultimately a disappointing World Cup, Brazil have got back on the up, winning seven of their eight games since leaving Russia last summer. That said, they’ve developed a style based around solidity as opposed to a flamboyancy, which is something that is associated with each of the great Brazilian sides of the past. After beating Czech Republic by three goals to one when last in action, Seleção will be looking to continue moving on up against an improving Qatar side.

To be completely honest, Brazil’s recent showings have been tough to criticise; the Samba Boys have looked solid at the back, keeping a clean sheet in six of their eight friendlies since the World Cup, while they’ve delivered the goods when it has mattered most going forward. Since leaving the east and travelling back home, Brazil have averaged 1.57 expected goals for, while they’ve surrendered an average of just 0.57, which means that’s it’s easy to see why they’ve kept so many clean sheets.

However, while their underlying numbers are very respectable, they’re not amazing. What’s more, Seleção recently failed to beat Panama, while they only beat Cameroon by a goal to nil, so there’s certainly hope for Qatar, who showed the wider footballing audience that they’re no mugs when beating Japan to lift the Asian Cup back in February.

As well as beating some of the best sides in Asia, Qatar have also tussled with some decent sides in Friendlies over the last year. Prior to the World Cup, they drew 2-2 with Iceland, while they beat Nations League semi-finalists Switzerland, who drew with Brazil in Russia, by a goal to nil shortly before that. Back in October, Qatar also showed that they’re no pushovers when emerging victorious from a seven-goal thriller against Ecuador. In there three friendlies against Iceland, Switzerland and Ecuador, Qatar averaged 1.21 expected goals against and conceded an average of 1.35, so they’re not the most creative, but they’re not the easiest to create against either.

From a betting point of view, if we consider that fact that Brazil have kept things reasonably low-key since the World Cup, alongside the fact that Qatar have more than held their own against some reasonable sides in friendlies over the last seven or eight months, then it’s not terribly difficult to make a case for ‘Under 3.5 Goals’ at the current prices.

In fact, betting on less than four goals to be scored looks a very good bet when we run the numbers. In friendlies since September 2018, Brazil have conceded an average of just 0.22 goals, while Qatar haven’t exactly leaked a great deal, shipping an average of only 1.17. Add in the fact that the pair have surrendered a combined average of just 1.72 expected goals and supporting ‘Under 3.5 Goals’ is hard to resist.