Dinamo Zagreb vs Rosenborg Predictions

After they failed to emerge victorious on their own patch, Zagreb looked to be in for a tough night in Hungary, though they could hardly have won any easier, as they beat Ferencvaros by four goals to nil to sail through to the final qualification round. Rosenborg also made light work of emerging from the previous round, recording a 6-2 aggregate victory.

When they beat Saburtalo by three goals to nil at this venue, Zagbreb looked like a strong side indeed, though they weren’t as impressive when facing Ferencvaros at home during the previous round. Going forward, they did create a useful amount, posting 1.67 expected goals for, which allowed them to get the ball in the back of the net.

However, despite doing OK in an attacking sense, Zagreb struggled to take control, as they created only 0.66 expected goals more than their opponents, while they didn’t offer the greatest amount of resistance when push came to shove, which does not bode well ahead of facing a Rosenborg side that has looked clinical on the road, scoring six goals in three travelling qualifiers this term.

From a performance point of view, Rosenborg certainly haven’t been flawless on the road, nor have they been flamboyant, but they’ve been reasonably disciplined and have been tough to better. An average of 0.94 expected goals for suggests that they’ve been slightly subdued going forward, though an average of 0.61 against tells us that the Norwegians have done a good job preventing their opponents from creating.

Away against Maribor during the previous round, Rosenborg soaked up pressure before taking advantage at the other end. The fact that they surrendered just 0.42 expected goals and two shots on target in doing so was pleasing.

From a betting point of view, Zagreb should be favourites on their own patch, though they do look on the short side, especially as they stuttered to a draw at home during the previous round. Add in the fact that Rosenborg, who delivered a disciplined winning performance away from home during the last round, have looked tough to face on the road and it’s easy to feel that a bet on the Norwegians to avoid defeat offers punters a slither of value at the current prices.

Frankly, when we take everything into consideration, particularly the fact that Rosenborg have surrendered less expected goals on average than Zagreb have at home, the visitors look to have a better chance of denying the hosts than the present odds suggest.