Duisburg vs St Pauli Predictions

After an unexpected 7th place finish at the end of the 17/18 campaign, Duisburg have been hit with a shot of reality at the start of the new season. Without a win over their opening eight Bundesliga 2 matches, the West Germans were glued to the bottom of the table until just before the international  break. Cue a change of manager. Nobody could have expected what came after the introduction of former Eintracht Braunschweig boss Torsten Lieberkneckt. Duisburg travelled to league leaders Cologne and came away with all three points in a shock 2-1 win in Lieberkneckt’s first game in charge.

St Pauli are another side getting themselves back on track following a string of  defeats, though the North Germans will have much bigger ambitions. Pauli’s 3-1 win at home to Sandhausen just before the international break was their third win in four matches and they now stand on 16 points from nine league games (W5 D1 L3), just three points off the top spot – not bad for a side that finished 12th in the Bundesliga 2 last season. However, you have to note that these wins were against some of the weaker sides in the German second tier – Paderborn are newly promoted, Ingolstadt are bottom and Sandhausen are second bottom.

And what do we like betting-wise here? Well, for us, goals look the order of the day. St Pauli have one of the best offensive records in the German second tier (5th best), but also one of the worst defenses too (joint 3rd worst). Expect that to have a huge role in how this match plays out. Relying on the North Germans to get a goal or two shouldn’t be too much of an ask. Not only have they scored at least two goals in half of their last six league outings, but Duisburg also hold the second worst defense in the Bundesliga 2. And yet despite all the problems,  Duisburg themselves have been pretty consistent in front of goal too, scoring at least one goal in each of their last five league outings, and should be even more so now Lieberkneckt has taken over.

Following off that, over 2.5 goals were scored in each of Duisburg’s last five league matches too. Adding together all of the above we can’t help but expect that to continue on Monday. However, Duisburg are yet to record a point at the Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena so far this season, so you’d have fancy St Pauli to come away with a result, especially when taking into account the hosts’ poor defensive record. Ultimately, St Pauli have too many factors going their way to think that Duisburg could pull off another “shock” here, and the North Germans recent record against them over the years only furthers this idea – St Pauli have lost just one of the last 12 meetings against Duisburg (W8 D4 L1). Our prediction: 2-1 St Pauli.