FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Predictions

Sandro Schwarz’s Mainz are in free-fall. Following their 3-2 defeat away to rivals Augsburg in the second round of DFB Pokal on Tuesday the 05ers are now seven matches without a win across all competitions (D2 L5). A lack of goals has been the main concern – the 05ers have only managed five in nine league games so far – and though panic mode is yet to set in, there’s no denying that they’re fortunate to stand where they are. Mainz are running way over expectation defensively – expected goals (xG) says they should have conceded around three goals more than they have (13 instead of 10) – and tight results against even some of the weaker sides in the division, such as a 1-1 draw away to newly promoted Nurnberg, shows how little they have to offer.

At the other end of their pitch, despite a 6-2 defeat to Leverkusen last weekend, you couldn’t describe Werder Bremen’s start to the season in any other way than ‘blistering’ by their standards – in fact, their 17 points from nine matches is their best tally since 2005/06. Needless to say then that Bremen are one of the most dangerous teams in Germany at the minute, and with three wins from four games on the road so far (W3 L1) they must be looking forward to another away day against an out-of-sorts Mainz 05. Coach Florain Kohfeldt’s change of style in a refreshed version of a 4-3-3 has been key to their form and has even seen the North Germans net as many goals as reigning champions Bayern Munich (17).

So how does this one look in terms of betting? Well, for us, there looks to be some reasonable value in backing the visitors to come away from the Opel Arena with a win. As mentioned before, Bremen are proving one of the trickier sides in the Bundesliga to play against and they’ve been causing plenty of problems to sides more in-form than Mainz 05. You might be thinking “well Mainz have only lost one of their four home matches so far, and that was against Bayern Munich”, and you’d be right, but that’s why we’re recommending backing Werder Bremen ‘Draw No Bet’ – that is, if Bremen win, the bet wins, but if Bremen draw, then your bet is refunded (or the leg is void if in an accumulator). But given how Bremen have been playing recently, you can’t expect for them to do anything other than go for the win. Bremen’s scoring form, netting two or more in three of their four on the road this season, draws us to the same conclusion.

Mainz are winless in six Bundesliga matches and this is their worst such run under coach Schwarz. And while their form at home looks o.k., their underlying stats have been poor there – in fact, just two teams (Schalke and Stuttgart) have registered fewer shots on goal than the 05ers (12). Mainz have even failed to score in five of their last six Bundesliga outings too – goodness knows how they managed to get one past Bayern Munich! However, with Bremen conceding at least one in 78% of their matches, we actually feel it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see them bag a goal. What we can say though is that we don’t expect to see them get more than one, as three of Mainz’s five goals this season have come from substitutes, which says something about the quality that they have available in the first place. Our prediction: 2-1 Werder Bremen.