Gil Vicente vs Moreirense Predictions

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  • Sun 2 Feb
Gil Vicente

      Under 2.5 Match Goals

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      Gil Vicente 1-0

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      Tip Reasoning

      • Under 2.5 goals have been produced in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two clubs.
      • Under 2.5 goals have been scored in 4 of Gil Vicente’s last 5 matches.
      • Under 2.5 goals have been scored in 3 of Moreirense’s last 5 matches.
      • The hosts are yet to lose at home and the visitors haven’t won on the road.

      The hosts are yet to taste defeat in their own backyard

      Gil Vicente narrowly lost 2-1 away at Porto in midweek while Moreirense lost by the very same scoreline in their own backyard against the newly crowned Taca da Liga champions Braga. Just 4pts separate these two clubs in the Primeira Liga table but even that small difference is enough to see Gil Vicente sitting comfortably in mid-table while Moreirense are looking over their shoulders as they hover 4pts above the relegation zone.

      Five of the last seven encounters between these two clubs have produced under 2.5 goals, as have four of Gil Vicente’s and three of Moreirense’s last five matches in all competitions. The hosts head into Sunday’s clash as the form favourites having won two, drawn three, and only lost one of their last six outings, while Moreirense have lost three of their last five league games.

      A couple of major stats that lead us to predict a 1-0 home win for Gil Vicente are the home and away records of the two clubs, as the hosts are yet to lose in their own backyard and Moreirense still haven’t found the formula to win on the road so far this season. Gil Vicente average 1.89 points per home game and have a win ratio of 44% while Moreienense average just 0.44 points per away game and have a loss ratio of 56%, adding further weight to our prediction for a home win this weekend.

      The visitors are still searching for their first away win

      Gil Vicente score an average of 1.44 goals per home game and concede an average of 0.67 goals while Moreirense score an average of 0.78 goals per away game and concede 1.56 goals, which is why we have backed a narrow 1-0 final scoreline in favour of the hosts this Sunday. Gil Vicente’s home games produce an average of 2.11 total goals and Moreirense’s away games produce an average of 2.33 total goals, which backs up our prediction of under 2.5 goals being scored this weekend.

      Under 2.5 goals have been scored in 67% of Gil Vicente’s home matches and Moreirense’s away games so far this season, so you can see why we are confident Sunday’s clash will be a low-scoring affair. The hosts have only conceded 6 goals at home and the visitors have only netted 7 goals on the road, with Gil Vicente keeping clean sheets in 44% of their home ties and Moreirense failing to score in 44% of their trips on the road.

      A majority of Moreirense’s defeats this season (5) have had a 1-goal margin and Gil Vicente have won by 1-goal twice since making their return to the Primeira Liga, and we have backed another narrow defeat for Sunday’s guests this weekend. The hosts are undefeated in their last nine home games and it’s hard to see this Moreirense side picking up their first away win of the campaign against Gil Vicente.

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