Gremio vs Cerro Porteno Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 22:15
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  • Arena do Grêmio
Cerro Porteno

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Tuesday’s Copa Libertadores action sees reigning champions Gremio playing host to group leaders Cerro Porteno. The Brazilians will be looking to pick up a crucial three points in front of the home crowd.

Gremio came into the competition amongst the favourites to lift it, having conquered the continent last season and retaining most of their squad for the forthcoming year. At the halfway point in Group 1, Tricolor lie second with a healthy 5 point total, following draws at Defensor and Cerro themselves, in addition to a home win over Venezuelans Monagas.

With two home fixtures to come, as well as trip to rock bottom Monagas, Renato Portaluppi’s troops will now be looking to stamp their authority on the group and ensure as easy a knockout tie possible in the next phase. Confidence can be fairly high in doing exactly that, having looked strong in 2018 thus far whilst lifting the Campeonato Gaucho, and picking up what would be a seventh home win in 10 outings is undoubtedly the target coming into the game.

Meanwhile, visiting Cerro have made an excellent start to their own Libertadores campaign, as they look to make it out of the group, as they did back in 2016. El Ciclon have thus far picked up a win away at Monagas in the opening round, as well as collecting 4 points from home games against Defensor and Gremio.

Nonetheless, Luiz Zubeldia’s troops still have plenty of work to do if they are to remain on top spot, with this game at Gremio and a tricky trip to Defensor to come. The visitors are a far stronger outfit at their Estadio General Pablo Rojas home, where they remain unbeaten since it was re-modelled, meaning having to contest two away games is a big worry, particularly because the side have lost 10 of their last 14 away games in the competition.

Ultimately, we feel that Cerro’s top placed standing will not last for much longer, and indeed a Gremio win here would see the hosts overtake them. Cerro were fortunate to beat Defensor with a goal that was clearly offside and it’s hard to take too much from a win at Monagas, who are clearly the weakest team in the group.

Man for man, Gremio are the stronger team and having rested most of their starters in the weekend defeat at Botafogo, those that take to the field will be fit and raring to go. Cerro will look to put men behind the ball in order to try and secure a result, but Gremio should have too much quality for the Paraguayans.

The bet that really stands out to us is backing the Gremio win in combination with under 2.5 goals. It’s not likely to be an open game given the strategy Cerro will bring and with 4 of Gremio’s last 5 outings having ended under the 2.5 goal line, it’s a market that really appeals. Gremio have also kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 matches, and such defensive solidarity is something we envisage continuing, with a 1-0 margin of victory on the cards.

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