Hannover 96 vs Schalke Predictions

Things have gone terribly awry at HDI Arena this season. Saturday’s hosts currently find themselves nine points from safety and six points shy of the relegation play-off. A win over Schalke, who currently occupy the place immediately above the relegation play-off spot would improve things slightly for Thomas Doll’s men, though even if they were to emerge victorious from this match, relegation would seem likely.

Hannover were typically weak defensively last time out, as they lost by three goals to one away against Augsburg, though if we take a closer look at their efforts, it’s not difficult to believe that they were hard done by. Despite giving away, Hannover offered a good amount going forward, as they clocked a decent 2.04 expected goals. What’s more, their expected goal difference of +0.47 tells us that they created a bit more than their opponents, which means that they were essentially unlucky to lose.

Performances at home have been poor as far as Hannover are concerned, though their last effort against one of the Bundesliga’s strugglers suggests that the hosts could do well on Saturday. Prior to being beaten fair and square by Frankfurt at HDI Arena, Hannover got the better of relegation-bound Nurnberg by two goals to nil. On that occasion, Thomas Doll’s men created a pleasing 1.81 expected goals for and conceded 1.14. Hannover also performed respectably against Stuttgart, who’re in the drop-zone at present, at this venue, winning by three goals to one.

Like Hannover, Schalke are struggling; they’re without a win in eight Bundesliga games, while they’ve lost each of their last three on the road. However, some of their away-day efforts against the lesser teams in the division suggest that they can compete on Saturday. Each of their last three away performances have been poor, though prior to their defeat against the current league leaders, Die Königsblauen went four games unbeaten on their travels, earning draws against the likes of Hertha and Hoffenheim. They also got the better of Stuttgart during that spell, winning by three goals to one.

Even against the lesser sides, Schalke have struggled to keep things overly tight on the road; they’ve been breached by Stuttgart, Augsburg, Mainz and Freiburg, conceding 1.53, 1.12, 2.55 and 1.22 expected goals in the process. They have competed at the other end, though such defensive numbers aren’t too pleasing.

Of the two, Schalke are probably marginally the better side, as the league table suggests, though it’s tough to feel that the early market has it right. Despite having slightly more about them than Hannover, the visitors haven’t done enough to merit odds-on favouritism on their travels. After all, they’ve been far from flawless against teams at the foot of the table, as just one win from four away matches against teams currently residing in the bottom six suggests.

Hannover are bang in trouble at present, but they’ve been at their best when facing struggling teams at home, beating the likes of Stuttgart and Nurnberg at this venue, posting a positive expected goal difference on both occasions. All in all, it’s easy to conclude that the hosts are a good price at present and thus supporting them to get a positive result represents a slice of value.