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Iceland vs Turkey Predictions

  • 18:45
  • Expired
  • Laugardalsvöllur
Iceland
Turkey

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Iceland vs Turkey Predictions

Iceland needed to bounce back after narrowly losing out against France and that’s exactly what they did on Saturday evening, as they beat Albania by a goal to nil. Given that only two of themselves, France and Turkey will progress from this group, Erik Hamrén’s men need to win this game or they risk falling behind the top two.

Tuesday’s hosts will have been pleased to resume winning ways on Saturday, though Hamrén probably won’t have been overly pleased with the performance. Despite playing at home, Iceland failed to control the match, while they offered little going forward, so much so that they were perhaps a tad fortunate to walk away with all three points. An expected goals for total of 0.56 isn’t impressive, while an expected goal difference of -0.09 doesn’t exactly point towards dominance.

Since they beat Andorra, Iceland have now gone two games without creating much at all. They failed to get involved against the French, scoring no goals, conceding four and posting only 0.36 expected goals for, while as we can see above, they barely improved offensively last time out.

In contrast, Turkey have been flying along since the start of the campaign. After beating Andorra first time out, the Turks delivered a commanding performance against Moldova, winning by four goals to nil, while they upset the world champions just a few days ago.

Against France, Turkey really did impress, as they restricted their opponents to very little going forward, conceding just three shots, none of which hit the target. They also surrendered only 0.3 expected goals for, while they posted a pleasing 1.49 going the other way. After such a performance, Şenol Güneş men will fancy themselves to get something from this game.

Given their first couple of qualification matches, it would be easy to side with Turkey, though they look somewhat short. For all Iceland haven’t impressed, they’re not the easiest side to beat at home.

At the current prices, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ stands out as a viable option. In qualifying so far, Turkey have looked good going forward, though they’ve not always been secure at the back. If we look back to the recently concluded Nations League, then it’s easy to see that this Turkey side can be got at. On their travels in that competition, the Turks conceded an average of two goals per game, while they also shipped an average of 1.71.

At home in the Nations League, Iceland were no strangers to goal-filled games, as each of their two games in front of a home crowd produced three goals. There was also an average of 3.57 expected goals in Iceland’s home games in that competition.

When we put all the pieces together, the chances of goals arriving at Laugardalsvöllur appear to be slightly greater than the current odds suggest, so a bet on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ represents a smidgen of value.

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