Leeds vs Barnsley Predictions

• No side has conceded fewer than Leeds at home this term
• The hosts have won to nil in 11 of their 13 home victories.
• Barnsley have lost their last three meetings with Leeds
• 71% of Leeds’ home games have seen under 2.5 goals

On the brink of the big time

Leeds were able to break Swansea’s resolve late in their clash in Wales, with an added time winner putting them on the verge of a return to the Premier League. With just three rounds left to play, Leeds hold a six-point lead over third-placed Brentford. They are on course for the title, while their long-awaited promotion is incredibly close for the hosts.

A 16-year absence from the Premier League could be over very soon, while three-points in this clash would leave little doubt that Leeds are going up. However, Yorkshire rivals Barnsley are the side who could get in the way, with the Tykes heading here desperate for points to boost their own survival hopes.

Leeds immense at Elland Road

A 5-0 win over Stoke in their last home game extended Leeds’ impressive record at their own ground. Leeds remain unbeaten at Elland Road since a 0-1 defeat to Wigan in February (P6 W5 D1), keeping five clean sheets in their last six games. That’s given them the strongest home defensive record of any side in the league, winning over half of their games here to nil.

Barnsley look like the perfect foil for the hosts in their Premier League bid. The Tykes have failed to score in 43% of their away trips, finding the net only 18 times in 21 away trips. They’ve converted just 6% of their chances away from home, which is bad news against a Leeds side who have faced less than eight shots per game on average at home. Having won to nil in 11 of their 13 home wins, Barnsley’s blunt attack is unlikely to make an impact here.

History sides with the hosts

Barnsley’s tough position isn’t likely to improve this week, as they have struggled to stop their rivals in recent years. Leeds have lost just one of their last seven league games against Barnsley (W5 D1), winning each of the last three. That run started before Marcelo Bielsa hauled this side up the Championship table and made them a side on the verge of the Premier League. That has us backing the hosts here, while their incredible defensive form at Elland Road makes a home win to nil our prediction.

Leeds tend to have close home games, while that should be the case when they meet a Barnsley side who have tightened up their act at the back. Barnsley have kept seven clean sheets in their last 11 Championship games (W5 D3 L3), having kept just three shutouts in their opening 32 matches of this campaign. Expect that form to keep the score down, with 71% of the hosts’ games at Elland Road seeing fewer than three goals. As a result a 2-0 home win is our correct score prediction.