Lens vs Metz Predictions

• Lens have conceded 10 goals already in Ligue 1 this term
• However, the hosts have won 20 of their last 25 home Ligue 1 games
• Metz have scored in their last 18 competitive games

Tough start for hosts

It’s been a disappointing start for Lens, taking just one point so far in Ligue 1 to sit second-bottom having been a point shy of the title last term. As they prepare for a huge Champions League clash in midweek, they’ll be desperate to return to winning ways.

Home advantage can help the hosts this weekend, as Lens have lost just one of their last 25 Ligue 1 home games (W20). The hosts get a favourable turn in their fixtures having been dealt a difficult hand early on, coming across PSG, Monaco and Rennes in their first four.

That goes some way to explaining why they’ve conceded so many goals. Lens have shipped 10 goals in Ligue 1 already, 3.58 more goals than they should have according to the Expected Goals model. They should have only shipped 6.42 xGA, the highest differential in Ligue 1.

History with Lens

The hosts should benefit from a favourable fixture this weekend, as they’ve got a fantastic record against Metz. Not only do they have more wins against Metz than they do against any other current top-flight side, but Saturday’s opponents are the only team Lens have scored more than 100 home goals against in Ligue 1 (102).

However, Metz have scored in each of their last 18 matches in all competitions and they can trouble a Lens defence which is still conceding too many chances.

The hosts’ defensive record suggests they’ll struggle for clean sheets, but they should be good enough to start turning their form around. Given that, look to Lens to win and both teams to score.