Luton Town vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

Luton’s winning run came to an end in the EFL Trophy during the week, though in competitions that they really care about, the Hatters continue to thrive. Nathan Jones’ men kept up their winning habit in the FA Cup last weekend, while they’ve won each of their last four in the league, scoring an impressive 13 goals in the process. Such form bodes well ahead of a home match against a Fleetwood side that has been very hit and miss this season.

It’s becoming very hard to criticise Luton, who continue to blow teams away in League One. Such a run of form is likely to come to an end at some point, but it must be said that Nathan Jones’ men have shown no signs of waning in the final third, that’s for sure. The Hatters are playing explosive, creative football and they’re getting the ball in the net on a regular basis. After delivering a commanding attacking performance when beating Bradford in their last league match, Luton will come into this match with their tails up.

Going forward, especially on their own patch, is where this Luton are excelling. They’ve scored a staggering 27 goals in ten home matches, which is the best return in the league, while they’re averaging a very impressive 2.12 expected goals for at home. Such an average suggests that maybe a few of their goals haven’t been totally merited, but it also tells us that they’re creating an awful lot of scoring opportunities.

However, for all they’ve been explosive in the final third, defensive frailties have crept into their game of late. Realistically, despite being the better side and being completely deserving of the win, the Hatters were a tad fortunate not to concede against Bradford last time out, while they failed to keep the Gills at bay prior to that. They conceded (and shipped 1.5 expected goals) at home to Accrington before that, so it’s fair to say that Jones’ men are not infallible defensively.

Fleetwood, who’ve regained attacking confidence by scoring four in their last two league matches, will be uplifted after seeing Luton be undone at the back a few times of late, though they’re unlikely to be confident about keeping the hosts at bay.

Away from home, Joey Barton’s men have often taken advantage of attacking teams on the break, and they may well do that at Kenilworth Road on Saturday, though their defensive exploits don’t exactly suggest that they can hold off the irresistible Hatters. Fleetwood have conceded at least once in six of their last seven on the road, while they shipped two goals and surrendered a worrying 2.46 expected goals away against lowly Plymouth last time out. Furthermore, they’re giving up an average of 1.66 expected goals on their travels. Such stats do not bode too well for the Cod Army.

At the prices, the main bet that stands out is ‘Both Teams to Score’. Luton have everything going for them offensively, but both the underlying numbers and their recent efforts at the back tell us that they’re probably more likely to concede than the prices suggest, especially against a Fleetwood side that has threatened on the break in similar matches.

The second bet that catches the eye is ‘Luton to Win & Both Teams to Score’. For all the Hatters haven’t looked amazingly secure at the back, they’ve offered more than enough to think that they can outscore their visitors on Saturday. If we put Luton’s average of 2.12 expected goals for up against Fleetwood’s average of 1.41 expected goals away from home, coupled with the fact that Fleetwood are shipping 1.66 at the other end, then backing Luton to win despite conceding makes plenty of appeal.