Mainz vs RB Leipzig Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 18:00
  • Expired
  • Opel Arena
Mainz
RB Leipzig

Tip Reasoning

Mainz 05 have been well and truly dragged into the relegation fight. Last Sunday’s 2-1 defeat away to fellow strugglers Ingolstadt marked their third consecutive Bundesliga defeat, meaning the 05ers head into this win-less in four (D1 L3). Mainz have never lost four in a row under coach Schmidt, but recent defeats against the bottom two (Darmstadt and Ingolstadt) bring into question whether Mainz even have a chance to take anything against the 2nd placed RB Leipzig this Wednesday.

The international break proved aptly timed for RB Leipzig as the two week hiatus gave the Red Bulls time to regroup, following their own three match win-less run (D1 L2). Leipzig’s dominant 4-0 win at home to Darmstadt 98 last weekend has put them firmly back on track and Champions League qualification now seems a more realistic goal than ever – the Red Bulls stand 12 points within the top four with just ten matches remaining. However, their pursuit of Bayern Munich and the Bundesliga title is all but over.

RB Leipzig are favourites here at 23/20 with bet365, which is definitely a tempting price given Leipzig’s formidable record on the road (W6 D3 L4) – the second best away record in the Bundesliga. However, due to Leipzig’s recent inconsistencies, we feel that “over 2.5 goals” at 1/1 is the safer bet for the following reasons: first and foremost, RB Leipzig’s matches rarely tend to be dull affairs. Not only have over 2.5 goals been scored in 62% of Leipzig’s away matches, but eight of their ten (80%) Bundesliga matches in 2017 so far (some won, some lost) have also seen over 2.5 goals scored. Combine this with Mainz’s own 46% rate of over 2.5 goals per match at home, and this already seems lined up to be a profitable endeavor.

Even though Leipzig are likely without top scorer Timo Werner (14 goals), winger Emil Forsberg (8 goals) and midfielder Naby Keita (6 goals) have proven their worth going forward for the Red Bulls in his stead. Both of these players were dangerous and hit the back of the net in Leipzig’s 4-0 win at home to Darmstadt last weekend, so the pair should have plenty of opportunity in front of goal against a Mainz side that have kept a clean sheet just 23% of the time at the Opel Arena.

Regarding a correct score bet, while we expect the visitors to be the stronger side, Leipzig have failed to keep a clean sheet in 77% of their matches on the road, so a goal for Mainz wouldn’t be out of the question – Mainz themselves have scored at least a goal in four of their last five too. Hence, a 2-1 RB Leipzig win at 8/1 with bet365 is a decent shout here.

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