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Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 14:30
  • Expired
  • Opel Arena

Tip Reasoning

Wolfsburg’s 22 point tally after 22 matches is their worst record ever at this point in a Bundesliga season. Last weekend’s 2-1 defeat at home to Werder Bremen was the final straw for the Wolves, as coach Valerian Ismael’s short spell in charge came to an end. His nine defeats from fifteen top-flight matches as manager has left the 2009 champions just two points above the relegation zone. The duty of steering Wolfsburg away from an unwanted relegation dogfight falls to new coach Andries Jonker, who managed the Arsenal academy since 2014. He brings ex-Arsenal winger Freddie Ljungberg as assistant manager with him.

Mainz 05 head into this off the back of a “surprise” 2-0 win away to Bayer Leverkusen last weekend. Mainz’s 2017 has gone much better than expected since top scorer Yunus Malli (6 goals and 7 assists) joined visitors Wolfsburg over the January transfer window. Mainz are comfortably above the relegation zone, but one poor performance too many sees them 5 points behind last season’s 6th place finish.

Mainz are the favourites here at 6/5, but we feel backing the visitors “double chance” at 7/10 is the better option for the following reasons: most teams are not expected to just break out winning performances a few days after signing a new manager. However, with Wolfsburg, the quality is there. Former coach Ismael may have not been able to bring out the best of players such as Mario Gomez, Malli, or Blaszczykowski, but we feel Jonker may. Jonker already has some managerial experience in the Bundesliga after taking over from Louis van Gaal at Bayern Munich before the end of the 2010/2011 season. He took Bayern Munich from their then 4th place position in the Bundesliga to win the league and the DFB Pokal. His short reign gives him claim to the best record of any Bundesliga manager, with five or more recorded matches (W4 D1 for 2.6 points per match), higher than even current Bayern Munich manager Carlo Ancelloti (2.41 points per match).

Even through their troubles, Wolfsburg have also not been all that bad on the road this season. The Wolves have won or drawn in 50% of their last six on the road (W2 D1 L3), and all three defeats were to be expected against teams as strong as Bayern Munich, Dortmund, and the in-form Cologne. Meanwhile, Mainz themselves don’t have the best home record, losing or drawing in 55% of matches, and have been inconsistent at best this season, for example, under-performing in a defeat against Werder Bremen last time out at the Opel Arena before travelling to win at Bayer Leverkusen. Simply put, backing Mainz is too big a risk for such a short price.

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