Mallorca vs Deportivo La Coruna Predictions

After what was an encouraging start, where they had Depor on the back-foot for a good 10-15 minutes, things rapidly went downhill for Mallorca, who first went a goal down and then had a man dismissed shortly before half-time. Once they were reduced to ten, the objective of Vicente Moreno’s men was to contain and not fall further behind, though the deficit doubled when they conceded ten minutes from time. It’s far from over, though Sunday’s hosts have given themselves something of an uphill struggle.

Despite being under pressure early in the game, Depor did what they needed to in the first leg. Much as they did in the semi-finals, La Coruna go on the road with a two-goal advantage. More importantly, they avoided conceding an away goal.

We may not be able to take the overall performance at face value, as they faced ten men for over half the contest, though the fact that Depor scored twice, kept a clean sheet, created 1.7 expected goals for and conceded only 0.81 was pleasing.

Mallorca, who finished the regular season with the second best home record, winning 15, drawing four and losing only two of their 21 matches at Iberostar Stadium, are no mugs on their own patch, so they’ll fancy themselves to cancel out the deficit, though Malaga probably thought the same before Depor used the aggregate score-line to their advantage in the semis.

We know that Mallorca, who average 1.71 goals for and 1.64 expected goals for, can threaten at home, but they’re up against a side that has been known to frustrate teams on the road. Depor, as they did in the semis, will happily sit back before looking to pounce on the counter. After all, they have a two-goal lead and thus have no reason to force the issue.

As they’re the side that “needs” to win this game, Mallorca are obviously short in the betting, though they look a bit too short. They’re useful at home, though they’re up against Depor, who’ve lost just one of their last five on the road and who delivered an excellent performance to beat Malaga on the road (under similar circumstances) in the semis. In truth, the hosts look short, while the visitors’ price appears to be a tad on the large side.

Depor come into this game having conceded an average of just 0.86 goals away from home this season (including the play-off), while the way in which they held off Malaga last time out before pouncing on the break bodes very well, so much so that ‘Deportivo La Coruna Draw No Bet’ gets the nod.