Manchester City vs Aston Villa Predictions

• Villa have lost 22 of their last 29 visits to the defending champions
• Man City have won their last 12 home meetings with Aston Villa
• The visitors have scored in all of their league games under Unai Emery
• Ollie Watkins has provided a goal or assist in six of seven starts since Emery took charge

City face uncertain future

Man City’s title chances took a hit in last weekend’s defeat to Tottenham, having come out of the January transfer window weaker than they started it. Their outlook took another hit this week, with the club charged with multiple rule breaks by the Premier League.

City are already five points shy of Arsenal and could face a points deduction, so their title challenge could be derailed off the pitch even if they get things back on track. While everything seems a little off at the Etihad, this is a tough team to write off, especially given that Erling Haaland can win games on his own.

On the bright side, Sunday’s clash seems very winnable for City. Not only do Villa struggle against the champions and at the Etihad, they also head to Manchester off the back of a dismal loss to Leicester.

History against Villains

Aston Villa have won just one of their last 29 away league games against reigning top-flight champions, losing 22 of those games. They’ve also lost 12 straight visits to Man City, while they head into this clash looking to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings with the Citizens in a season for the first time since 2000-01.

The visitors have lost three of their visits to top-half teams this season and they’ve suffered five defeats on the road already. Meanwhile, this weekend pits them against a City side who have the best home record in the division.

The hosts have won nine of 11 home matches this term, while Guardiola is out to extend an incredible record on these shores. This is Guardiola’s 250th Premier League game as manager and he’s already racked up 183 wins – the sixth-highest in league history. Unsurprisingly, the boasts the highest win rate of any permanent manager in Premier League history at 73.5%.

City to prove too strong

Guardiola’s win rate should get even better, as Unai Emery has never beaten him in 12 previous meetings in all competitions, losing eight.

However, there’s little doubt that the visitors have turned a corner under their new coach. Aston Villa have scored at least once in their eight Premier League games under Emery, with their 14 goals scored in these matches as many as they’d netted in their previous 15 combined.

Villa head into this one having seen both teams score in four of their last five, with Ollie Watkins a particular standout. He’s been involved in a goal in six of the seven games he has started under Emery, including scoring in back-to-back games. Look to him as a good anytime scorer option in this clash.

While Watkins can get on the scoresheet, everything else is pointing City’s way. Back them to win and concede given that they average 3.45 goals per game at home while conceding 1.09. With eight of City’s home wins and four of Villa’s away defeats coming by at least two goals, look to a 3-1 home win.