Napoli vs Legia Warsaw Predictions

  • 19:00
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  • Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Legia Warsaw
  • BT Sport Extra 2

Legia Warsaw +3

4/6odds when tipped
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Napoli 2-0

11/2odds when tipped
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Tip Reasoning

  • Napoli have won only one of their four home games this season by more than one goal (2-0 v Cagliari).
  • Legia Warsaw have won both of their Europa League games this season with clean sheets.

Legia can avoid landslide loss

Serie A leaders Napoli are not faring anywhere near as well in the Europa League and may find Legia Warsaw tough to carve open on Thursday night.

Luciano Spalletti’s squad are in good form domestically, having rattled off eight straight wins in the league, but have had a couple of nights off so far in Europe with last month’s 3-2 home reverse to Spartak Moscow coming as a big shock. Mario Rui’s first-half red card turned the tide in favour of the Russians who scored three goals after the break to leave the Neapolitans joint-bottom of Group C.

Lets be clear, Napoli should win this game, but beware staking your hard-earned on any landslide victory because that would underestimate the Poles and their approach to this game.

Legia look to be in poor form at the moment with three Ekstraklasa league defeats surrounding their 1-0 home win over Leicester from late last month. They aren’t scoring enough goals to compensate for periods where they fall into a collective daze and are regularly punished.

Napoli not as good against deep three-man defences

However, their position in the group means they don’t need to chase three points on Thursday and we would expect them to sit deep with a back three and string five across midfield to frustrate the hosts for as long as possible. Napoli have not performed as well against three-man defences as they have against back fours this season, so we believe the odds on Legia staying within a couple of goals of the Azzurri are worth taking.

Only twice in 11 away games this season have the Polish champions shipped more than two goals (average 1.27 per game) while Napoli are yet to cover a -2 handicap in any of their four home games.

A 2-0 result would satisfy Napoli’s thirst for a win and, although disappointing, Legia will be looking to pick up the four points they need to go through from their two remaining home games anyway.

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