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Napoli vs Roma Predictions

  • 19:45
  • Expired
  • Stadio San Paolo
Napoli
Roma
  • BT Sport 1
  • BT Sport Ultimate

Under 2.5 Match Goals

Reason for tip

Under 2.5 goals have been scored in seven of the last eight games to feature Roma, as well as on four of Napoli’s last seven outings. While Napoli’s tally of 14 goals conceded is the lowest in Serie A this term, Roma have only shipped 16, and expected goals against (xGA) figures credit them with having the best backline in the league.

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Draw 1-1

Reason for tip

While Napoli are favourites after winning 14 of their last 15 league matches, Roma have only lost one away Serie A game this term, a record matched only by the leaders themselves and Atalanta. Roma are unbeaten in seven outings and could frustrate their hosts, not that it will be enough to dent their title bid, which appears a formality.

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Napoli vs Roma Predictions

  • Under 2.5 goals have been scored in four of Napoli’s last seven Serie A games.
  • Roma, meanwhile, have only seen over two goals scored in one of their last eight matches.
  • Napoli have conceded the fewest goals in Serie A this season (14). Roma have only shipped two goals more.
  • Roma have allowed opponents a league-low 12.8 expected goals this season – Napoli rank second in that statistic, conceding 17.1 xGA.

Case for the defences in Naples

Napoli’s first Scudetto since the Diego Maradona era is surely on the horizon after they moved 12 points clear at the top of Serie A – the result of Juventus’ point deduction, a drop-off from both Milan giants and their own outstanding form. Luciano Spalletti’s men have won 14 of their last 15 league games, but Sunday’s meeting with Roma does represent a potential bump in the road, with a certain Jose Mourinho out to spoil the Partenopei’s party.

Having celebrated his 60th birthday earlier this week, Mourinho will be keen to mark the occasion by causing a surprise, and Roma head to Naples in strong form. The Giallorossi are unbeaten in seven games, winning four, and are just one point behind second-placed Milan. Roma will be expected to sit deep in this game, and they have an outstanding defensive record, allowing opponents a league-low 12.8 expected goals this season and only conceding 16 times. Seven of their last eight games have contained under 2.5 goals, and more of the same may be expected here.

While Napoli’s exhilarating attacking play has earned plaudits this season, their defensive solidity has been just as important to their title charge, with the likes of Kim Min-jae and Amir Rrahmani deserving more credit for filling the void left by Kalidou Koulibaly’s exit. With just 14 goals conceded, Napoli have the best defensive record in Serie A, and they have seen four of their last seven matches contain under 2.5 goals, including Sunday’s solid 2-0 win at Salernitana.

Solid Roma to frustrate leaders?

With Roma and Napoli boasting the two best defences in Serie A by virtue of expected goals against (xGA) statistics this season, we expect a tight affair at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, particularly given their competitors’ mistakes have eased the pressure on title-chasing Napoli.

Under 2.5 match goals is our main selection for this game, while a Roma side with just one defeat on the road all season in Serie A – a record only matched by Napoli and Atalanta – could have it in them to claim a 1-1 draw.


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