Penarol vs Libertad Asuncion Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Friday’s Copa Libertadores clash sees Uruguayans Penarol playing host to Paraguayans Libertad. The home side will be itching for revenge, having fallen to a 2-1 defeat away at Libertad last week.

Los Aurinegros had looked comfortable throughout the fixture and were leading 1-0 but capitulated in the final 15 minutes, conceding twice. Leonardo Ramos’ troops are now under pressure to pick up the win in this fixture, having only collected 3 points from 3 group games thus far.

Nonetheless, that triumph did come at the Estadio Campeón del Siglo up against Argentines Atletico Tucuman and is part of a run that has seen Penarol win 12 of their last 15 home games. With this match and another home game against The Strongest to come, the hosts will still be hopeful of making it into the next round and avoiding yet another underwhelming continental campaign. The host undoubtedly remain well in the hunt as they look to do so, with all teams in the group on 3 points, bar Libertad, but there’s no room for any home slip ups, making this an extremely important match.

Meanwhile, visitors Libertad can arrive fairly relaxed to the Uruguayan capital, safe in the knowledge that their knockout phase place is all but secured. Little was expected of Los Gumarelos in the competition this year, given they crashed out of the group stage last season, but they’ve done very well to put together 3 wins, albeit rather fortunately against Penarol last week.

For all their continental success, Libertad are in fairly average domestic form, currently lying 4th in the opening phase of action, some 12 point behind leaders Olimpia. The visitors did manage to pick up a 2-0 win at Guarani over the weekend, keeping confidence high in the camp, but there’s no doubting they face a real test against a Penarol side so rampant on home soil.

Indeed, the hosts have wracked up an average of 2.26 goals a game over their aforementioned home streak, something they’ll be itching to maintain. As mentioned, the game between the two last week was a closely fought affair, so one would have to fancy Penarol with home advantage this time around.

We certainly do and see good value in backing them to run out victors. They will know the importance of the fixture and we expect to see a highly motivated performance against a Libertad side who won’t come with their feet up, but also won’t have the same desperate need for the points.

Penarol have also won 4 of their last 5 Libertadores home games in addition to their strong recent run and that would suggest they’ll have enough to get the better of a Libertad outfit with just 1 win in 6 on the road in the competition, with a 2-1 margin of victory the most likely outcome.