Qatar vs Iceland Predictions

Qatar may not be known for their footballing prowess, but they’ve quietly gone about their business and picked up several good results in recent times. The 2022 World Cup hosts recently secured a confidence-boosting win over Ecuador, while they managed to overcome Switzerland last time out, defying a hefty 11/1 price-tag. With that result under their belts, Félix Sánchez Bas’ men ought to fancy their chances against a struggling Icelandic side.

Few people fancied Qatar to make much headway against a useful Switzerland side, but they proved that they’re not exactly the minnows that many may have expected them to be. Bas’ side certainly didn’t dominate against the Swiss, but they were organised, defended well and took their chance when it came. By clocking just 0.6 expected goals for at one end and giving up 1.23 at the other end, it’s easy to say that Al-Annabi were fortunate, but such stats also tells us that they were far from totally outplayed.

Moreover, the recent performances of Bas’ men suggest that they’re capable of having a go. Since September, Qatar have played five matches; they’ve won four, have scored nine goals and have conceded five in the process. They’ve hardly played the footballing elite during that time, but their wins over both Ecuador and Switzerland are positive, as is their average expected goal difference of +0.42.

In contrast, Iceland have had a rough time of it since the World Cup. Erik Hamrén’s men have faced much better opponents than Qatar, though it’s tough to divert from the fact that results have been poor. Having lost somewhat tamely against Belgium last time out, Strákarnir okkar are unlikely to be feeling too confident ahead of this match, especially since their opponents recently beat Switzerland, who they themselves lost to just a month ago.

However, while Iceland lost against Switzerland, their performance suggests that they’ve got more quality than Qatar. When facing the Swiss a short while ago, Hamrén’s men lost by two goals to one, but they offered plenty in the final third, as they clocked a very respectable 1.69 expected goals, which is a vast improvement on the figure posted by Qatar.

Furthermore, while Qatar managed just six shots (and just two shots on target) against the Swiss, Iceland managed to hit the target nine times against the same opponent, while they also emerged with an expected goal supremacy of +0.17, while Qatar found themselves 0.63 behind Switzerland in that respect.

As far as this match goes, with neither side looking amazingly forceful in the final third, an overly high-scoring game doesn’t seem to be forthcoming, but with extra quality going forward, Iceland are backed to come out on top. Despite losing, Iceland’s created a better impression against the Swiss, so, ‘Iceland to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ is the selection.