Real Garcilaso vs Melgar Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview

Real Garcilaso are 10th placed midway through the Clausura phase of the Peruvian Primera Division, neither at threat from relegation nor too hopeful of a top 4 playoff position finish. Though they are just 6 points behind their opponents Melgar, who stand 4th in the league, five other teams stand between them and the playoffs. Two difficult away fixtures against league leaders Universitario and 3rd placed Sport Huancayo, ending in 4-1 and 3-0 defeats respectively, has seen Real Garcilaso take just 3 points from their last 3 matches and due to their overall inconsistency so far in 2016, a 5th to 7th placed finish with qualification to the Copa Sudamericana is a more realistic goal.

Reigning champions Melgar had a difficult start to the Clausura phase, playing 3 of the strongest teams in the league (Sporting Cristal, Sport Huancayo and Universitario) over their opening 7 fixtures. Melgar have taken 6 points from their last 3 matches with a 1-0 win against league leaders Universitario and a 3-2 win at home to Comerciantes Unidos last time out, with their top goalscorer Bernardo Cuesta (10 goals in 22 appearances) and midfielder Dhawlin Luedo playing a vital role in their return from suspension. The 2015 champions have kept themselves in the playoff runnings, standing 4th with 39 points, though Deportivo Municipal and Alianza Lima are hot on their heels.

Home advantage usually plays a very strong influence on results in the Peruvian Primera Division due to the widely varying climates and altitudes. Melgar have shown, however, that they are one of the leagues top sides and are capable of adjusting to this change. Melgar have the 4th best away record in the division, taking an average of 1.25 points per game on the road, and have won or drawn in 58% of their away matches. While Real Garcilaso come into this match with back-to-back home wins, they have lost 2 of their last 5 at home against much weaker teams in the division, and they haven’t won 3 consecutive at home since the first half of 2015 (an opportunity they have had four times since then).

Combining the analysis above with the statistics below, we find topvalue in Melgar or draw at 4/5 and Melgar to win 2-1 at 12/1 with bet365 to be a top value correct score bet.

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