Red Bull Salzburg vs Bayern Munich Predictions

• Over 3.5 goals has been a winning bet in six of Salzburg’s last 10 home games in all competitions.
• There have been at least four goals scored in six of Bayern’s last seven games.
• These sides met in the group stages last season and the two fixtures produced 12 goals in total, with Bayern winning both games.
• Salzburg’s Karim Adeyemi has four goals in eight Champions League appearances.

Salzburg test for heavily fancied Bayern

Bayern Munich are among the favourites to go all the way and win the Champions League this season but they will need to be on top form to come away from Salzburg with a win in the first leg of their last 16 tie.

Bayern slipped to a shock 4-2 defeat at mid-table Bochum at the weekend and the hosts thoroughly deserved the three points. Bochum dominated the first half despite falling behind early on and led 4-1 at the break, and Bayern were unable to fight their way back into the game despite improving after the restart.

Salzburg aren’t exactly a surprise package in the Champions League as this is their third consecutive season in which they have reached the tournament proper. This does mark their debut in this stage of the competition, and they go into the game in good form after five consecutive competitive victories.

Go for goals at the Red Bull Arena

Bayern are the heavy favourites to win this game and I expect them to come out on top, but at such a short price there isn’t a great deal of value in simply backing the German giants to win and instead the match goals market stands out.

Both teams are in good scoring form as Salzburg have scored at least twice in four of their last five games, hitting 13 in total, while Bayern have managed at least two in nine of their last 10 games.

Over 3.5 goals is the main bet here as that has been a winning bet in six of Salzburg’s last 10 home games in all competitions and in six of Bayern’s last seven games. These two sides met in the group stages last season and both games saw at least four goals scored, with 12 goals in total across the two games, so a high-scoring contest could well be on the cards in Austria.

Experience gives Bayern the edge

Bayern are regulars in the knockout stages of the Champions League and they have only failed to reach the quarter-finals in one of the last 10 seasons. The Bavarian giants also beat Salzburg in both meetings last season, winning 6-2 away and 3-1 at home, and it would be a surprise if they failed to leave Austria with the advantage ahead of the second leg in Munich.

Bayern aren’t at their free-flowing best and have two defeats in their last five games so I feel this could be closer than last year’s meetings, and a 3-2 win for the visitors looks a reasonable option in the correct score market.

Robert Lewandowski will always appeal in the goalscorer markets when Bayern play but at a bigger price Salzburg’s Karim Adeyemi appeals. The 20-year-old, who is reportedly close to agreeing a summer move to Borussia Dortmund, managed four goals in the group stages and has 14 goals in 18 appearances in Austria’s top tier this season, and he may be able to add to his account against a Bayern side who have conceded 12 goals across their last eight away games.