Red Bull Salzburg vs Chelsea Predictions

• Salzburg have scored exactly once across their last seven Champions League games
• Chelsea have the most aggressive pressing game in the competition
• The Blues have conceded once across their last six games
• Salzburg have seen under 2.5 goals in every group game

Blues back in control

After Thomas Tuchel oversaw a 1-0 shock defeat to Dinamo Zagreb in his final game, Graham Potter has put Chelsea back in control of this group. They’ve claimed seven points from their three games under their new boss, which has put them in top spot.

Back-to-back wins over AC Milan have boosted the Blues’ European hopes and they’ll be out to take a big step towards the next round. They head to second-placed Salzburg in their penultimate game, so a win could all but wrap up first place.

Solid Blues need an edge

Potter has turned around Chelsea’s performances as well as their results. The Blues hadn’t played well through 2022, but they suddenly look much stronger in defence and much more effective with their pressing.

The Blues have now allowed the fewest opposition passes per defensive action (8.3) in the Champions League this season. That marks them out as the most aggressive pressing side in thei group stage.

Only Man City (1.79) have a lower expected goals against total than Chelsea (1.81) in the competition, so they’re defensively excellent. Scoring has been the problem, with the Blues’ only goal across the last two games coming from the penalty spot. They’ve gone over 270 minutes now without an open-play goal.

Steady Salzburg can hold firm

The hosts are still unbeaten in Europe this term and they’re currently on course to match last season’s run to the last 16. They remain a consistent force in Europe, having scored exactly one goal in each of their last seven games in the Champions League.

The Blues aren’t likely to allow them much room going forward, having kept five clean sheets in their last six. Meanwhile, the hosts have also conceded no more than once across their four group games this term, with each seeing under 2.5 goals landing. The same has landed in Chelsea’s last four in all competitions, so back this to be another tight contest.

RB Salzburg are winless in all seven of their European matches against English teams, while they’ve drawn three of their four games in this group 1-1. The Blues have drawn their last two, so a 1-1 draw is my correct score prediction.