Rochdale vs Burton Albion Predictions

Things aren’t going well for Rochdale. It did look as though they were on the up when they recorded a second straight win for the first time this season on Boxing Day, but they’ve since lost two on the spin, conceding nine goals and scoring none in the process. Keith Hill’s men now find themselves just three points above the dreaded drop-zone, so a win is very much needed on Saturday.

If Rochdale are going to avoid being sucked into a relegation fight, then they need to tighten up at the back. Going forward, Hill’s men usually threaten, while it’s not as if they lack a goal-scorer all the time Ian Henderson is fit, though they just can’t seem to keep things tight defensively. Dale have conceded nine goals in their last two matches, while they’re now without a clean sheet in five.

Even at home, Rochdale have found it tough to keep teams at bay. Hill’s side do look to play an expansive game, so they’re always going to be a bit open, but there’s a difference between giving away a reasonable amount of chances, which is often inevitable, and simply allowing the opponents to create and score at will, which is what they did when last in action at this venue. Dale have now conceded in each of their last three at home, shipping a total of seven goals during that time.

In general, Dale have created a reasonable amount at home, as their average of 1.54 expected goals for suggests, but they’ve rarely given less away, as their average of 1.58 expected goals against shows. Burton are no mugs going forward, so the hosts could once again come unstuck at the back, though Hill’s men will be hopeful of getting themselves back on the score-sheet, that’s for sure.

Just like Rochdale have given too much away on home soil in recent times, Burton haven’t kept things too tight away from home. The visitors did keep a clean sheet away against Bristol Rovers on New Year’s Day, but that is the first time that they’ve shut their opponents out on the road this season, while they’ve given up an average of 1.63 expected goals. Such a figure tells us that an attack containing one of League One’s highest scorers should thrive.

At the other end of proceedings, Burton haven’t done too well of late. They’ve failed to score in each of their last four on the road, but this match against a dodgy Rochdale back-line provides the Brewers with an excellent opportunity to re-find their scoring touch. After all, they’re averaging 1.31 expected goals for on the road, so they can create a bit. What’s more, they’ve tended to enjoy playing against the weaker defences in the league, as they showed when scoring three goals away against both Walsall and Plymouth.

With defensive weakness being at the forefront of both Rochdale and Burton’s game, it’s relatively easy to make a case for ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ at the current prices. Between them in their respective home and away games, the pair are giving away an average of 3.21 expected goals, so it would be a surprise if both didn’t take advantage in the final third on Saturday afternoon.