Salernitana vs Lecce Predictions

• Salernitana are unbeaten in their last five Serie A matches, although four have been draws.
• Lecce, on the other hand, have not won since their return to Serie A.
• Lecce are yet to score multiple goals since their promotion, while Salternitana have been Serie A’s eighth-most creative team this season, according to expected goals (xG).

Promoted outfits struggling

We’re now six matches into the Serie A season, and somewhat remarkably, all three newly promoted teams remain winless, including Serie B champions Lecce. Marco Baroni’s men have taken just three points from their early-season outings, during which few teams have played as defensively, and they could struggle on Friday’s trip to Salernitana.

Salernitana staged a miraculous recovery to survive under Davide Nicola last term, and despite expectations of another long campaign, have kicked on. Nicola’s men stretched their unbeaten run to five games with a 2-2 draw at Juventus last week, though four of those matches have been draws. Only Roma have beaten Salernitana this term, and only seven Serie A teams have created more expected goals (7.8 xG) since the high-profile arrivals of Krzysztof Piatek, Antonio Candreva and others.

Lecce, meanwhile, have taken just three points so far this season, and their lack of ambition may well cost them. Baroni’s men are the only Serie A team to average below 40 per cent possession this term, and only Spezia have created less xG (3.9 to Lecce’s 4.1). Only Monza and Sampdoria (both three) have scored fewer than their four league goals this season, and a season of struggle looks likely.

Hosts can take advantage

Only Udinese and Roma have beaten Salernitana in their last seven home league games, while Lecce are winless in five road trips – a run which dates back to their time in the second tier.

With that in mind, backing the hosts for victory appears prudent, and a 1-0 win over their shot-shy visitors could represent decent correct score value.

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