Southampton vs Norwich Predictions

• This is a clash of two sides facing the drop.
• Saints are chasing back-to back-home wins; Norwich are looking to win consecutive away trips.
• The hosts have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine games.
• Saints have conceded 15 goals across their last three league games to kick off after 7pm.

Relegation Six-pointer

Two of the Premier League’s bottom three clash this week, as these two sides aim to change their fortunes. The meeting at St Mary’s is an opportunity for both, as they look to build up a little form ahead of a vital month in the top flight. Neither will want to be in the bottom three over Christmas, while both sides can’t afford to let their recent results slip.

Southampton ended a run of eight home league games without a win last time out against Watford. They could now land back-to-back victories at St Mary’s for the first time since March. Following their 2-0 win at Everton in their last away league game, Norwich are looking for consecutive wins on the road in the top flight for the first time in nearly eight years.

Canaries’ Big Week

This clash is the opener to a vital few days for Norwich. Their last two clashes have seen them win 2-0 at Everton and hold Arsenal to a 2-2 draw. That’s solid form ahead of two winnable games. Next up for the visitors are third-bottom Southampton and newly promoted Sheffield United.

This is a chance for Daniel Farke’s men to improve, having arguably underperformed given their fixtures. So far, 10 of Norwich’s 14 Premier League games this season have been against teams starting the day in the bottom half – they’ve lost eight of those. Things have to get better, else they’ll be making a quick Championship return.

Expect Goals at St Mary’s

While both sides are pushing to add to their recent form, the constant for them this season has been defensive vulnerability. Norwich have conceded twice in five of their seven away trips, shipping 1.7 goals per game on average. However, they’ll be confident of causing problems for a Saints side who have conceded a goal in 100% of their home games so far. On top of that, the Saints have conceded 15 goals across their last three evening Premier League matches.

That poor defensive record has left the hosts with a string of high-scoring matches this term. They’ve seen 86% of their home games this term finish with over 2.5 goals scored, while eight of their last nine in the league have seen at least three goals. Both sides are conceding too many – the Saints have shipped 2.29 per game this season – so we think over 2.5 goals is the best way to go in this one.

The Saints are at least clicking up top, with two players in rich form. Southampton’s last 10 Premier League goals have been scored by either Danny Ings (6) or James Ward-Prowse (4). The latter has three in his last four appearances, thanks to strong finishing from dead-ball situations. Given 33% of Norwich’s away goals conceded have come from set-pieces or penalties, we think War-Prowse is a well-priced anytime goalscorer option.

Southampton have won just one of their last 12 home evening kick-offs (7pm or later) in the Premier League (D4 L7), beating Fulham 2-0 in February. Meanwhile, away from home, Norwich are winless in their last 14 evening Premier League matches (D5 L9) since beating local rivals Ipswich 2-1 in September 1994. Both sides have four points from two, but only two wins in the 12 games before that. As a result, a 2-2 draw is our correct score pick.