TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Ingolstadt Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

TSG Hoffenheim are truly thriving under coach Julian Nagelsmann. After saving TSG from the grips of relegation at the end of last season, Hoffenheim’s 38 points from 22 matches this season are enough to see them hold their own within the top 4. Notably, Hoffenheim’s 61 points from 36 matches under Nagelsmann is only bettered by Borussia Dortmund (73 points) and reigning champions Bayern Munich (88 points) over the same number. Undefeated at the WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena this season, Hoffenheim will be pushing for three more points here against relegation strugglers Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt are also much improved following their mid-season managerial change: Ingolstadt coach Maik Walpurgis’ record of 16 points from 12 games is miles better than predecessor Markus Kauczinski (2 points in 10 matches), making survival now seem a possibility. Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat at home to Borussia M’gladbach was a blow that sees them 4 points short of safety, however, Ingolstadt have shown they’re capable of shock performances, beating Eintracht Frankfurt on their last match on the road, so Hoffenheim must be wary.

Hoffenheim are the favourites here at 7/10 with bet365, and we feel there’s sufficient value in backing them for the following reasons: Hoffenheim are playing their best football in years and already have as many points this season (37) as they managed during the whole of last season. Hoffenheim hold the 5th best record at home in the Bundesliga, winning 55% of their matches (W6 D5), while Ingolstadt have lost 64% of their matches on the road (W3 D1 L7). Admittedly, Hoffenheim 45% draw rate at home looks concerning at first glance, however, most of these draws have been against stronger sides, such as, Borussia Dortmund (2-2), RB Leipzig (2-2) and Wolfsburg (0-0). Meanwhile, excluding Ingolstadt’s shock win in their last match on the road, an event unlikely to repeat itself over two outings, most of Ingolstadt’s defeats have been against sides you’d expect them to lose against.

Notably, Hoffenheim have never lost a competitive fixture to Ingolstadt, winning 66% of meetings (W4 D2).

Regarding a correct score bet, we feel that Hoffenheim’s 2 goals scored per match average should be spot on against an Ingolstadt side that have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight matches (12.5%). However, with both teams scoring in 64% of Hoffenheim’s matches and the visitors having some potential to surprise, a consolation goal for Ingolstadt could also be on the cards. Hoffenheim have won 2-1 in three of the last four meetings against Ingolstadt and we feel there’s some decent value backing them for another one here at 15/2.