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Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Lisbon Predictions

  • 20:30
  • Expired
  • Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques
Vitoria Guimaraes
Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon to Win and Under 3.5 Match Goals

7/5odds when tipped

Sporting Lisbon 2-1

15/2odds when tipped
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Tip Reasoning

  • Sporting have won five of their last six Primeira Liga games against Vitoria.
  • Six of the last ten Vitoria home league games have featured fewer than four goals.
  • Fewer than four goals have been scored in the last six Sporting Lisbon games.

Sporting back on track after dodgy defensive spell

Sporting travel north in search of their fourth clean sheet on the bounce and they might be able to get it against an increasingly defensive Vitoria Guimaraes. The Portuguese champions have seemingly come out on the other side of a dodgy – relatively-speaking – spell of their own that saw Ruben Amorim’s side concede 20 goals in 14 games between Christmas and early March. Sporting had shipped only 12 in their previous 20, so the recent run appears to be a return to that form.

Their opponents this weekend are back on a firm footing themselves after back-to-back wins followed a sequence of four league defeats in five. Last weekend’s 1-0 win in Funchal came courtesy of a Nicolas Janvier thunderbolt in an otherwise turgid affair.

Pepa’s team have not been efficient in the opposition penalty area, as their overall xG numbers this season show. They have also lost all four of their contests against Portugal’s big three this term, including a 1-0 defeat at the Alvalade to Sporting in October.

Lions like the taste of multiple goals on the road

They did score in a 3-1 home defeat to Benfica earlier this season and the majority of their matches since mid-September have seen both teams score, so we don’t rule out the possibility of the hosts registering on Saturday.

But Sporting’s recent displays, including their proud effort in Manchester, suggest they have enough quality to get the better of Vitoria this weekend. A win for Os Leoes with fewer than four goals in the match looks a good fit to the recent stats, in which 60% of Vitoria’s and 66% of Sporting’s last few games have not featured more than three strikes.

Sporting have won their last two encounters against Vitoria 1-0, both at home, but there have been more goals in their meetings played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, so the correct score recommendation is to be for a 2-1 away win. Sporting have scored multiple goals in 10 of their 13 away league trips to date already this term.


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