Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Last season was thought to be something of an anomaly for the 2014/2015 runners up, with their best ever year in European competition contrasted against season-long inconsistency in the Bundesliga. Coach Dieter Hecking has made some necessary transfers over the summer, but Wolfsburg are yet to see the best from their new signings. Striker Mario Gomez, who scored 26 goals in 33 appearances for Besiktas last season, is yet to open his account and with every passing week the pressure is building on him to produce goals. Wolfsburg have also failed to take all three points away from a match since their opening 2-0 win away to Augsburg. 0-0 draws against Cologne and Hoffenheim were acceptable results, however, the 5-1 demolishing defeat at home to Borussia Dortmund and the squandered lead resulting in a 2-1 defeat in the dying minutes against Werder Bremen last time out is a sub-par run of form that leaves them closer to the relegation zone than the European places.

UEFA Europa League participants Mainz have fared only marginally better in their pursuit of a second successive season of European football. Mainz have two more points on the board than Saturday’s hosts thanks to wins away to Augsburg and Bremen, but an avoidable 4-4 draw against Hoffenheim in gameweek two, where they were leading 4-1 before being reduced to 10 men (see team news), is something Mainz repeat far too regularly. Last weekend’s 3-2 defeat at home to Bayer Leverusen saw Mainz fail to hold onto yet another lead twice in one match.

While Wolfsburg are in worse current form than Mainz, who have earnt six of their seven points on the road, we feel the hosts have the upper edge here for a few reasons. Both of Mainz’s away wins have been against much weaker and more out-of-form sides than Wolfsburg – opponents Augsburg had won just one of their last 10 home matches and Bremen had their worst start to a season ever. Meanwhile, not only do Mainz have an injury epidemic which seems to grow with every passing match (see team news), but they also have just a few days rest between this and the Europa League match against Qabala in Azerbaijan on Thursday.

Though the hosts represent the direction of our bet, we better value in a low scoring outcome than the 5/6 home win price offered by the bookies here. Especially when considering that under 2.5 goals have been scored in 12 of Wolfsburg’s 15 home matches in 2016 and in seven of the last nine meetings between the two sides.

As such, under 2.5 goals at 11/10 and Wolfsburg to win 1-0 at 15/2 are our choice bets for this match.