Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
There’s just one place left in next season’s Premier League, with only three more games to decide it. The Championship’s playoff finalists will be settled across Tuesday and Wednesday, after two massive second legs. Both clashes remain tight, with just a single goal between the teams following Saturday’s results.
With two huge games on the horizon, we’re taking a look at what to expect from the second legs. While the two sides are seen as being level in the match betting, there are plenty more markets which we can dig into. We’re running through our #OddsOnThat bets for Tuesday and Wednesday’s games, which can each be found with Betfair. Ahead of the second legs, we have a 50/1 and 25/1 selection for the midweek action.
Leeds vs Derby
Wednesday night sees Leeds out to extend their 1-0 lead from the first clash at Pride Park. There’s been a huge shift in the betting for this one, with Derby now seen as practically out of it in the latest promotion odds. The Rams have to overcome a huge challenge, as no side has overturned a home defeat in the playoffs at this level. Not only do they have to pull that off, but they’re also facing the side which narrowly lost out on a place in the top two.
The hosts seemed re-energised ahead of the first leg at Pride Park. They came into that clash looking to make a point, after picking up a single point in their last four league games. Leeds swept aside a Derby team who were in form, which has set Leeds up for a trip to Wembley. They are aiming to make a grand return to the Premier League, which they should move closer towards with a result in this clash. Leeds had the best win ratio after going ahead in the division this term, so they’re hardly a team set up to lose a lead at the half-way point. We’ve backed them to finish the job in our Leeds vs Derby Predictions.
While we see Leeds winning, Derby’s push to get back into this one should give us another game full of corner kicks. Meanwhile, Leeds had eight corners away to Derby – while no side has clocked up as many corner kicks in the Championship this term as Bielsa’s side. That should lead to more on Wednesday, making the corners market an interesting option.
One of the key talking points from the first leg was Leeds’ midfielder Mateusz Klich avoiding a red card for his apparent headbutt towards Fikayo Tomori. He only received a booking, but expect him to be under scrutiny from the referee this week. His booking last time out makes him Leeds’ joint-most carded player so far this season. However, he can’t match Derby man Duane Holmes. The Rams’ midfielder has eight bookings from 17 starts, while he’s set to get the nod in midfield for this clash. With that in mind, we’re backing those two to pick up more cards in this game. We’re adding them into our bet for Wednesday night. In total, those four selections give us a huge 50/1 bet for the second leg at Elland Road.
West Brom vs Aston Villa
A turnaround at Villa Park left Aston Villa 2-1 up going into this week’s clash, which does seem like a slender lead. However, they are coming here aiming to wrap up the tie. We looked at the gulf that has emerged between two in our rundown of the latest promotion betting odds. The Villains have seen a cut in their price to go up, given the huge hurdle West Brom face this week.
We’ve sided with the visitors in our West Brom vs Aston Villa Predictions, with Dwight Gayle a huge absentee for the hosts. They had a 33% win rate without him last term, while Villa are the form side heading here. They have emerged as real contenders for promotion after a great run, which has been spurred on by Tammy Abraham. The forward has scored with four of his last five shots on target in the Championship, while we expect him to follow up his strike against the Baggies at the weekend.
We certainly expect an interesting game, with West Brom pushing to get level and Aston Villa playing on the counter. We can see that leading to corners in this game, especially given that the Villains had one of the highest corner tallies on the road in the league. Both sides averaged close to 11 corners in total per game this season, so more are likely on Tuesday night.
We’re rounding off our pick for this clash with two players to be carded. John McGinn has already picked up 14 yellows for Villa this term. You have to imagine he’ll be busy in the centre of midfield, while we can see him picking up a card at the Hawthorns. We’re also backing West Brom defender Kyle Bartley to receive a card. He’s going to have a tough time holding off Abraham in West Brom’s back three, especially with the hosts primed to attack. We can see that making life tough for the former Arsenal man, so we’re going with him to be booked to round off our 25/1 selection with Betfair.
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