Premier League relegation odds & early predictions

Premier League relegation odds & early predictions
Alex Wrigley
Alex Wrigley
August 2, 2021
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Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.

Following on from our Premier League winner odds article, FST’s early look into the Premier League outright markets continues as we fix our gaze on the less glamorous but often more exciting end of the table.

The three newly promoted sides – Norwich, Watford and Brentford – lead the betting but they are far from the only sides that look like they could be in trouble this season.

Let’s take a look at all the odds, if you’re looking for some more immediate betting advice make sure to check out our football tips page.


Premier League relegation odds

  • Norwich – 5/6
  • Watford – 1/1
  • Brentford – 11/10
  • Crystal Palace – 7/4
  • Burnley – 5/2
  • Newcastle – 11/4
  • Southampton – 4/1
  • Wolves – 5/1
  • Brighton – 6/1
  • Aston Villa – 7/1

The new arrivals

Considering Norwich ran out clear winners in the Championship last season with a huge 97-point haul it might come as a surprise to see them as favourites for the drop, but it really isn’t all that surprising.

The Canaries have been relegated from the top flight in each of their last three seasons there and while they have made a few shrewd signings the loss of Emi Buendia is a huge blow to their chances. Aston Villa could raid Carrow Road again before the end of the summer, too, with Todd Cantwell a top target should Jack Grealish head up north. Bad news for Norwich fans.

Watford are another side who managed a swift return to the top table but they remain one of the favourites for the drop. Despite their notoriously ruthless managerial decisions I actually see them having an easier time of it than Norwich. Danny Rose and Joshua King might not be marquee signings but both have plenty of Premier League experience and that could make all the difference in the battle against relegation.

Kristoffer Ajer could be a huge coup for Brentford after the club secured a long-awaited promotion last season. They have been building towards this for years but it remains to be seen whether their intense pressing and attack-minded playing style will transfer well to the Premier League. It could be a Leeds-esque success, or they could find themselves outclassed by the more experienced heads and drop back down. In any case, the Bees will be a very interesting watch.

Steve Bruce Newcastle


The perennial strugglers

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Crystal Palace in the bottom three come May. They may be taking steps to remedying the problem of an ageing squad but losing Andros Townsend, Gary Cahill, Scott Dann, James McCarthy, Mamadou Sakho and Patrick van Aanholt in a single window could prove costly, especially under the tutelage of the unproven Patrick Vieira.

Despite all the critics, Roy Hodgson worked miracles with the Eagles during his tenure and Vieira now faces a huge rebuilding job. Those six players I mentioned made 111 Premier League appearances last season and replacing that level of experience is a monumental task for the new manager.

Burnley may have finished 17th last season but they did pick up 39 points and Sean Dyche always finds a way of pulling it off. He has kept the Clarets in the top-flight for five seasons now despite dealing with one of the smallest budgets in the Premier League so I don’t see any value in them at 5/2.

Newcastle are an interesting shout at 11/4, however. They are yet to make any signings this summer and their squad is paper-thin in many departments. Combine that with the fan hostility aimed at Steve Bruce and Mike Ashley and they could really struggle to fend off the opposition. Only a late-season surge in form stopped them from being dragged into the relegation battle last season.

4/1 for Southampton isn’t far off the mark, either. Ralph Hasenhuttl has twice been on the end of huge defeats in his time at St Mary’s Stadium and a 15th-place finish last season was a poor effort. Their transfer window has been low-key to say the least and they could well be in for a difficult season.

Wolves and Brighton, at 5/1 and 6/1 respectively, offer no value whatsoever in my opinion. Wolves’ squad is far too strong to be considered in this bracket and the return of Raul Jimenez will boost them massively, along with some impressive summer business.

Brighton may have lost Ben White but they were the unluckiest side in the top-flight in terms of expected goals last season and actually finished fifth on xPTS. Graham Potter is building something at the Amex and it shouldn’t be long until the Seagulls come good.

Aston Villa might be a shout despite their 11th-place finish last term and their odds could be slashed if Jack Grealish leaves. The Villains’ win percentage drops from 56% with Grealish playing to just 23.5% without him and their points per game dips to a dangerous 0.94 without the 25-year-old star. They would reinvest the potential £100 million fee they would get for Grealish, but replacing such a talismanic figure is easier said than done.


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