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Serie A 2018/19 Golden Boot Betting Odds and Statistics
Aaron Rogan
Aaron Rogan
February 26, 2019
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Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.

The race for the Serie A Golden Boot took a turn this weekend, as some of Italy’s hotshots took it up a gear. This weekend saw three of the top four scorers find the net, the only one to miss out was Cristiano Ronaldo. The rivals to the Juventus man are pressing their case to top the scoring charts. That has opened up an interesting race in Italy, with Fabio Quagliarella the surprise man leading the way to win the Capocannoniere.

With the golden boot fight getting interesting, this is a betting market worth checking out. We’re looking at the latest odds for Serie A’s top scorer, with plenty of well-priced options looking to take the crown away from Ronaldo. If you want to oppose the most expensive signing by an Italian club, here are some of the contenders to beat the Portuguese to be crowned Capocannoniere.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Juventus Cristiano Ronaldo

Despite being a goal off top spot, the bookies are heavily backing Ronaldo to take the crown. The forward has hit 19 goals so far this season. That’s still an impressive total at this stage of the season, with his treble against Atletico Madrid showing his talent even further. However, could that treble actually count against him in the quest for the league’s golden boot?

Ronaldo and Juventus managed to stay in the Champions League on Tuesday night, but as a result, they’ll be keeping their focus on Europe for the coming months. They’ll be tied up until mid-April at the earliest, after which only six fixtures remain. Those six all pit Juventus against sides inside the top 10, with each side fighting for Europe. Those six games contains a meeting with bitter rivals Fiorentina, city rivals Torino and old foes Inter Milan in the Derby d’Italia. Clashes with big opponents with the title already in the bag put Juventus at a disadvantage.

This all means that Ronaldo is likely to see limited game time over the next few weeks. He was an unused substitute against Udinese, where the backup attackers worked well. That will give Max Allegri the chance to save Ronaldo for Europe. The earliest he’s likely to get a run in the side is mid-April when things are getting tough and the title will likely be won. Given that he’s taken at least 50 shots more than any other Serie A player – converting just 12% of his attempts into goals – limiting his minutes is a blow.

Despite all that, Ronaldo is as short as 1/5 with Betfair to take the golden boot in Italy this season. Given the problems facing him, it’s easy to start looking for other contenders.

Fabio Quagliarella

The current leader in the scoring charts converted from the spot for the sixth time this season at the weekend. Fabio Quagliarella is the first man to score 20 goals this season, at the ripe old age of 36. He’s firing Sampdoria up the standings; he’s scored almost half of his club’s goals this term. The experienced forward plays a key role leading a side which is built with young talents. Could the golden boot be his reward for that impressive work?

Quagliarella is having a brilliant finish to his Serie A career. We’ve seen players race up the scoring charts late in their career – 2015 Capocannoniere winner Luca Toni was a prime example, after scoring 22 times at 38-years-old. He scored in 11 straight Serie A games earlier this season, equalling a league record in the process. Having notched four times in his last three games, he could be winding up for another streak to finish the season. He has every chance of winning the Golden Boot, but he can be backed at 7/2 with Paddy Power to make first place his own in the scoring charts.

Krzysztof Piatek

Krzysztof Piatek in Serie A action for AC Milan

The story of the season in Serie A has been Piatek, who has had a fairy tale rise to prominence. The forward joined Genoa in the summer to little fanfare, but he quickly emerged as a talent. A few months later, Genoa received 10 times what they paid for him from AC Milan, where the Polish international has kicked on a gear. He’s been leading the charge as Milan climb the table, making them serious contenders for a top four finish. Now Milan’s leading man in attack, he has a great platform to finish his first season in Italy as the top scorer.

Piatek has scored 19 goals in the league this term, putting him level with Ronaldo. He has notched those with just 77 shots in total, landing 31 of them on target. He’s shown little fear in front of goal, while he’s massively outperforming his expected goals tally. He’s six goals up on his xG total. For many players, that would be a suggestion that they’re in a purple patch. However, Piatek has done that over the course of the season. There’s also his habit of scoring from incredible angles. After all, xG rates the quality of the chances, and Piatek doesn’t need the ball on a plate to score, as seen in his incredible finish at top four rivals Atalanta recently. Given his brilliant Serie A campaign so far, Piatek is great value to finish as top scorer at 9/2 with Paddy Power.

Duvan Zapata

Duvan Zapata Atalanta

Finally, Atalanta have created a ton of chances this season, with Duvan Zapata converting 17 of them. He’s been a great leading man in their push for the top four, while he plays in a side who offer him a lot of opportunities. He’s had 31 shots on target so far, while he’s also outscoring his xG tally. Despite sitting just two goals off Quagliarella, Zapata can be found at 16/1 with bet365 to top the scoring charts.

Recent weeks haven’t been quite as prolific for the Colombian forward, but he’s just found the net at the weekend once again. Now he’ll be looking to push Ronaldo in the final weeks of the campaign. Like the other two, he’s a serious contender to be crowned Capocannoniere, but he’s also overpriced against the favourite, who is likely to be distracted. If you’re looking for a market with real value, there are a few strong top scoring contenders, while Ronaldo chases Champions League glory.

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