Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
Another weekend of the season is behind us and, to combat those Monday blues, here at FST HQ we’re already looking ahead to the next gameweek.
We all have specific teams and leagues we gravitate towards when betting on certain markets, and in our weekend recap I take a look at some of the key betting trends that have continued this weekend.
Goals galore in Germany but Spaniards struggle
Mallorca lost for the eighth time this season at Cadiz but it was the goals tally that drew the eye more than the defeat. Each of their eight games since the World Cup break have featured fewer than three goals and their La Liga games this season average a league low 1.73 goals per game, with 84% of them going under 2.5 goals and 47% of them going under 1.5 goals.
Mallorca must have shipped most of their goals over to the Bundesliga, because over in Germany not a single team has seen under 2.5 goals land in fewer than half their matches and RB Leipzig are taking things to the next level. The most hated club in Germany played out a 2-1 win over Stuttgart on Friday, making it an impressive 18 from 18 when it comes to over 1.5 goals, with 72% of them producing at least three goals.
Interestingly, that 72% figure isn’t even the highest in Europe. Two teams have seen 75% of their league games produce at least three goals and both were involved in high-scoring matches at the weekend.
Over 2.5 goals landed for the fourth Ligue 1 game in a row for Lorient, while AC Milan’s dreadful run continued with another thriller. They lost 5-2 at home to Sassuolo, extending their run of over 2.5 goals to six Serie A matches and making it 19 goals in their last four games. They play in the Milan derby on Sunday and things do not look good for them.
Incredibly, even Lorient and AC Milan are beaten out in this department by Belgian First Division A side KV Oostende. A 2-2 draw with Kortijk on Saturday was the 14th successive competitive game in which over 2.5 goals landed and 78% of their league matches have featured at least three goals.
Back to the other end of the goals spectrum now, and two more European clubs left their fans underwhelmed this weekend as they struggle to find the net. Estoril lost 1-0 at Famalicao in the Portuguese Primeira Liga and NEC played out a 1-1 draw in the Eredivisie. These sides have league-low percentages for over 2.5 goals of 24% and 26% respectively, although interestingly both have seen over 1.5 goals land in over 70% of their fixtures.
Ligue 1 continues to be BTTS hotspot
In the past, Ligue 1 was viewed as something of a low-scoring league but things have changed in France and the top-flight is now home to some of the most entertaining football in Europe
17th-placed Strasbourg, who lost to Toulouse at the weekend, have seen both teams score in an incredible 85% of their league games this season. Troyes and Lorient have both seen the same happen in 80% of their games and also saw a lack of clean sheets this weekend, although Lorient’s clash was in the Coupe de France.
What’s more, all three take to the field again on Wednesday for Ligue 1’s midweek round, so you can get on board with this trend in just a couple of days!
To clarify just how impressive this is, the highest both teams to score percentage outside of Ligue 1 is Girona with 79% and they, along with AC Milan, are one of only two teams not in France to breach 75% in this metric.
Over in Spain, Barcelona show punters the other side of the coin. They beat Girona 1-0 last time out for their fourth successive clean sheet and only 22% of their La Liga fixtures have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
Meanwhile, Serie A side Sampdoria failed to score yet again in Bergamo as they lost to Atalanta. They have now gone over eight hours without a competitive goal and have failed to score in 65% of their league matches this season.
Home heroes and away-day woes
A 3-1 win over Espanyol on Friday handed Almeria their sixth home win of the season and only Barcelona and Villarreal have a better home record than the mid-table side. This is a stark contrast to their away record, which has seen them pick up just three points from a possible 27, but a home match against Real Betis in two weeks’ time is a potentially good target for punters.
Over in Germany, Bochum were thrashed 5-2 at Mainz to extend their miserable away run. They have now lost nine of their ten Bundesliga trips this season, conceding 29 goals in the process. A trip to Bayern Munich in a couple of weeks looks ominous.
Eredivisie challengers PSV made it eight wins from ten at home against Go Ahead Eagles, while FC Twente maintained their unbeaten home record as they drew with Feyenoord. Both will be back on home soil the weekend after next and should be in with a good chance of winning.
Another team in action at home that weekend is Belgian league leaders Genk, who demolished Seraing 4-0 on Sunday to make it 11 wins and one draw from 12 home games this season.
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