AEK Larnaca vs Ludogorets Predictions

Both sides have made poor starts to their Europa League campaign as they head into this game with two losses from two games. AEK lost 1-0 at home to Zurich in game week one before losing 4-2 away to Bayer Leverkusen. Ludogorets started their campaign with a 3-2 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen despite leading 2-0 on that game whilst they followed that up with a narrow 1-0 loss at Zurich.

AEK Larnaca have only just started their league campaign and sit 4th with 10 points from 4 games. They are very solid on home turf, with that 1-0 loss to Zurich being their only defeat in 10 games at the AEK Arena. In fact, they have won the other 9 games which include league games and Europa League qualifying games.

Ludogorets have made an excellent start to their domestic league season, sitting in 1st place with 29 points from their opening 12 games. They have scored 2.00 goals per game on average in the league and conceded just 0.75 goals per game. Away from home they are unbeaten this season in Bulgaria with 3 wins and 2 draws from their opening 5 games.

AEK Larnaca’s home form in the Europa League is very solid, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games, drawing 1 and losing 1. Before that 1-0 home loss to Zurich the Cypriot side had kept 7 consecutive clean sheets, not conceding in a whopping 754 minutes of play. They haven’t played too many good sides in that run, with the toughest opponents being Viktoria Plzen with whom they drew 0-0.

Ludogrets away form is mixed, they have lost just 3 of their 14 away Europa League games they have played, winning 6 and drawing 5. They have faced some decent sides in that time, playing AC Milan, Hoffenheim, Sporting Braga, Copenhagen, Valencia and PSV in that period. They generally keep it rather right away from home in the Europa League with their last 11 away Europa League games all seeing two goals or less. In fact only one of their 14 away Europa League games have seen 3 goals scored, a 2-1 away win at Dinamo Zagreb.

There is a lot at stake here as these sides play both fixtures before they then tackle Zurich and Leverkusen again, so if either side wants a chance to progress they will need a good result here. Both teams like to keep it tight in this competition and we see this game being a tight cagey affair. For that reason we are backing under 2.5 match goals. We feel Ludogorets are the stronger side of the two and can see them just nicking this game, so we shall be backing them to win 1-0 here.