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Ajax vs Sporting Lisbon Predictions

  • 20:00
  • Expired
  • Johan Cruijff Arena
Sporting Lisbon
  • BT Sport Extra 2

Under 2.5 Match Goals

7/5odds when tipped
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Draw 1-1

15/2odds when tipped
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Tip Reasoning

  • Ajax are through to the round of 16 as group winners and Sporting are through to the round of 16 as group runners-up.
  • Five of the last seven home Champions League games for Ajax have featured fewer than three goals.
  • Ajax are unbeaten in their last ten games (Won 9) and have conceded just two goals during that run.
  • Sporting Lisbon are unbeaten in their last 12 games (Won 12) and have conceded just six goals during that sequence.

Sporting’s chance for redemption in dead rubber

Group C’s two qualification berths are already decided so Sporting’s trip to Amsterdam is a dead rubber, although they may want to avenge the 5-1 home drubbing they took from Ajax in September.

Ruben Amorim’s side are a much stronger unit now than then, having recovered a couple of key players from injury and embarked upon a 12-game winning streak. They fully re-inserted themselves into the Portuguese title race with a 3-1 win at cross-city rivals Benfica on Friday night to make it seven away wins out of nine played this season.

This match looks set to be played behind closed doors due to current COVID-19 restrictions in the Netherlands, but that didn’t stop Ajax from thrashing Willem II 5-0 in their last game. Erik ten Haag’s team have suffered only one home setback this season – to Utrecht in early October – and are on a ten-game unbeaten run of their own.

Goals expected by bookies but worth opposing

Despite their obvious attacking prowess, both sides’ success this season is built on rock-solid defensive work. That’s one reason why there might not be many goals in this fixture. Sporting are naturally more likely to sit deep and try to draw Ajax on before hitting on the break. The Dutch giants are well used to dealing with that tactic in domestic games though and are unlikely to overcommit.

Ajax are understandably favourites to take all three points, but given the lack of fans and Sporting’s strong form we aren’t sure they should be so sort. Under 2.5 goals appeals at a goods odds-against price because of the solid defenses on show and lack of edge to the dead rubber while a 1-1 draw looks a good option in correct score betting.

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