Almeria vs Elche Predictions

It’s certainly not been a bad campaign for Almeria, who only just avoided relegation last season, though Francisco Javier Fernández Díaz’s might not be done yet, as they may just fancy themselves to make a late dash for the play-offs. Even if they miss out on a place in the top six, which at this point seems likely, Sunday’s hosts have undoubtedly progressed this season, so they ought to be upbeat going into the off-season.

Almeria are in poor form, there can be no denying that. They struggled to get going when losing against Real Oviedo in their most recent home match, while they simply weren’t good enough when giving far too much away against a lowly Lugo outfit last time out.

Fortunately, Sunday’s hosts have done reasonably well at home this season. They’ve lost just three of their 18 matches at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, where they’ve conceded just 12 goals all season. Only three teams have shipped less goals at home than Almeria in the second division this season, so it’s fair to say that Almeria are no mugs.

Unlike Almeria at home, Elche have been rather underwhelming on the road. Sunday’s visitors have won just three of their 18 travelling matches. They’ve only lost seven of the other 15, which tells us that they’ve not always been easy to beat, but if we look at their overall performances, the it’s easy to conclude that Elche have been poor on their travels.

Juan José Rojo Martín’s men will go to Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos unbeaten in three travelling matches, but they’ve only won one of those, which happens to be their only win in eight on the road. During that time, Elche have scored in seven out of eight, but they’ve also conceded in seven out of eight, while it is their lack of defensive strength that has outweighed their attacking exploits, as they’ve conceded a total of 10 and scored eight.

In addition to winning just one of their last eight on the road, Elche have a rather disappointing set of underlying figures. Sunday’s visitors average just 0.91 expected goals for away from home, while they’ve scored a rather measly average of a goal per game. Such numbers don’t look great when they’ve conceded an average of 1.59 goals and an average of 1.53 expected goals.

From a betting point of view, Almeria are hard to go against. Unlike the visitors, the hosts have given little away at home this season, surrendering an average of just 0.79 expected goals and 0.67 goals. Add in the fact that Almeria have averaged 1.44 expected goals for and it’s easy to get behind a home win at the current prices.