Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburg Predictions

Bielefeld will attempt to push themselves into the automatic spots when they host Hamburg on Monday evening. The visitors, who at the time of writing are top of the league, will look to continue setting the pace.

After a relatively solid but ultimately modest showing last season, Bielefeld have thrived this time around. Monday’s hosts have lost just one of their first nine games, winning five and drawing three of the other eight. Having accumulated a healthy 18 points, they find themselves in a lofty 3^rd position, just two points behind league leaders Hamburg.

Facing Hamburg won’t be easy, but Uwe Neuhaus’s men aren’t likely to be fearful of the visitors. After all, Bielefeld have been very tough to beat, losing just once since the start of the season, and even then, they were defeated by the narrowest of margins. Moreover, Bielefeld have looked useful at home, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.7 expected goals for. The fact that they’ve also conceded an average of only 1.11 expected goals is also positive, while an average expected goal difference of +0.59 shows that they’re creating more than they give away, which is always a good sign.

Unfortunately for the hosts, Hamburg have been very good on their travels. They’ve not quite been infallible, as their defeat away to St. Pauli shows, though they’ve played well and have delivered some encouraging numbers. Not only have Hamburg scored ten in four travelling matches, but they’re averaging a pleasing 1.71 expected goals for. This isn’t really any better than what Bielefeld have done at home, but it’s still impressive. Most teams won’t hit such heights away from home, that’s for sure.

However, for all their attacking power, Hamburg have struggled to keep teams out on the road, shipping six goals, conceding at least twice in two out of four. This lack of defensive solidity will encourage the hosts. In terms of expected goals, Hamburg have surrendered an average of 1.03, which shows that they’re not exactly presenting their opponents with chance after chance, but it still shows that they’ve given up enough to conceded once in each of their four travelling matches, while their last line of resistance hasn’t been up to much either.

In the betting, ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ stands out as a viable option. Both teams have looked dangerous going forward; they’ve scored plenty of goals and as a combined-expected-goals for average of 3.4 suggests, they’ve both created lots. In terms of chances given away, neither team has been poor, but we cannot ignore that, in their respective home and away games, they’ve kept just one clean sheet each.

At the prices, ‘Bielefeld to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ also catches the eye, as does a 2-2 draw. Given that the hosts have created an average of 1.7 expected goals for at home, they look a good bet to notch twice against a Hamburg defence that has often conceded two or more on the road, especially at what appears to be a generous price. Similarly, given that they pair have created similar amounts, siding with a goal-filled stalemate may just represent a slither of value at the current odds.