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Aston Villa vs Derby Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

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  • Villa Park
Aston Villa

Tip Reasoning

These have been two of the under-achievers so far this term. Both teams were expected to at the very least be strong play-off contenders but that dream has already died for Villa and even Derby are now looking like they may have left themselves too much to do. Not scoring enough goals has been a regular problem for both sides and certainly this is a match that is unlikely to produce many.

Villa now have the joint worst goalscoring record in the division along with struggling Wigan and Rotherham. Given they’ve spent something in the region of £40million on forwards alone, a goals per game average of 0.94 is pretty dire. Jonathan Kodjia is the only man who has been a consistent goal threat but January signing Scott Hogan picked up a serious looking injury on Monday at Newcastle to add to Villa’s woes.

They come into this game having taking just 1 point from their last 8 league games and they’ve only managed 4 goals in those matches. Clearly confidence is very low in camp and this new-look side has failed to gel, although for the most part they did look a bit more assured at the back against Newcastle on Monday night.

With Villa struggling badly for goals, they may struggle to break down a Derby side that has conceded just 0.91 goals per game this term. The Rams have the best defensive record outside the top two and have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches this season, which is excellent. However, like Villa they’ve struggled to break sides down and a 0-0 draw at home to Burton in midweek has really left them with a mountain to climb in terms of their play-off ambitions.

It has been a frustrating February for Derby, who are yet to win any of their five games this month. One positive has been the form of Darren Bent, who returns to his former club here. The former England international has 8 goals in his last 9 games and backing Bent to score anytime at 9/4 looks to offer value.

Overall though, a low-scoring game looks likely. The sides drew 0-0 earlier this term in the East Midlands and 66% of Villa games as well as 69% of Derby games have produced under 2.5 goals. Given that, backing Under 2.5 Goals at 7/10 looks like the way to go here.

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