Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Predictions

• Forest won the first leg 1-0
• Villa have a perfect home record in Europe
• Both teams have scored in five of Villa’s last eight home games

Besiktas Stadium the goal for Premier League pair

Nottingham Forest hold a slender 1-0 lead over Aston Villa in their Europa League semi-final tie ahead of Thursday’s return fixture at Villa Park.

The Villans come into the game on a three-game losing streak but boss Unai Emery did decide to shuffle his pack for Sunday’s 3-1 defeat at home to relegation-threatened Tottenham.

That result increased the domestic pressure on Forest as they now sit just three points clear of the drop zone. The Reds play Chelsea in the Premier League on Monday and don’t have the luxury of fully rotating at Stamford Bridge due to their lingering drop concerns, although Vítor Pereira may still make a couple of changes.

Whatever happens at Stamford Bridge on Monday probably won’t have a huge impact on Thursday’s game in any case. Forest have been juggling their commitments at home and in Europe all season and they should be fully motivated for the second leg of this tie with a lead to defend, so barring any injuries fatigue isn’t a huge concern.

Goals at both ends the starting point

Villa have been excellent at home all season as they have 11 wins at Villa Park in the league and a perfect record in Europe, with six wins in as many games.

Emery’s side won the corresponding Premier League fixture between these two sides 3-1 back in January and look the more likely winners on Thursday but the better option could instead be backing both teams to score at a similar price to a home win.

Forest are on a nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions going into their league game on Monday and they will look to frustrate their hosts as they defend a slender lead. They’ve also been in strong scoring form across that spell with 18 goals in total across those nine games.

Villa have gone four games without keeping a clean sheet and they have conceded in each of their last six meetings with the visitors, with both teams scoring in nine of those games. They rarely draw a blank at home, however, as they have scored in each of their last nine at Villa Park and in 21 of their last 23 home games across all competitions going back further so both of these teams look capable of getting on the scoresheet.

Extra time could be required

Villa should be able to fight their way back into the tie but they may need extra time to secure a place in the final in Istanbul and a 2-1 home win has a chance.

Villa had a strong recent record against Forest prior to the first leg with two wins and a draw in their last three meetings. They were also perhaps unfortunate to lose the first leg on the balance of play and with home advantage they can pick up a win, but Forest will defend in numbers even if they do fall behind by one-goal and Villa may struggle to win the tie in 90 minutes.

With goals at both ends expected, it makes sense from a value point of view to look at the visiting players in the goalscorer market and Forest’s first leg hero Chris Wood stands out.

Wood has missed a huge chunk of the season through injury but looks primed for a big finish to the season as he has scored in back-to-back games ahead of Monday’s game at Chelsea, while he will be on penalty duties for the visitors.