Napoli vs Arsenal Predictions

Many Arsenal fans may have been pessimistic ahead of a match against a useful Napoli side, though their fears were quickly quelled when the Gunners made light work of going ahead in the first leg, while they also made light work of coming out on top. Having avoided conceding an away-goal and having given themselves a two-goal lead ahead of their trip to Naples, Unai Emery’s men will fancy themselves to progress.

It was all too comfortable for Emery’s side last week; the Gunners created numerous scoring chances, as they clocked an impressive 2.76 expected goals for, while their end-product was strong, especially in the first half. Add in the fact that they prevented their opponents from ever really getting serious in the final third, as they conceded just 0.72 expected goals and just a single shot on target, and it’s fair to say that Arsenal’s win was straightforward.

After they beat both Zurich ad Salzburg at home in this competition, Napoli will be expected to deliver a much-improved performance in front of a home crowd on Thursday evening, though this will be the first time that they’ve played at home after losing the first leg (this season), so it will be interesting to see how the Neapolitans get on.

During the last round, Napoli seemingly beat Salzburg with ease at this venue, though the score-line was a bit misleading. Going forward, Carlo Ancelotti’s men were predictably useful; they scored three goals and created 1.89 expected goals for. However, they conceded plenty going the other way, so much so that they were very fortunate to keep a clean sheet. On that occasion, Salzburg recorded 21 shots, six of which hit the target, while they recorded 1.46 expected goals for. Such numbers suggest that Arsenal, who already have the advantage, ought to make plenty of headway at San Paolo Stadium.

On the road in this competition, Arsenal haven’t been at their best, but they’ve still posted some useful numbers, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and averaging 1.61 expected goals for. What’s more, this will be the first time this season that the Gunners have played the second leg on the road. The fact that Napoli must attack should bode well for an Arsenal side that, with the pace of Aubameyang, can be useful on the break.

In the betting, ‘Arsenal to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ looks slightly overpriced, much as it did ahead of the first leg. Consider that Napoli gave plenty away at home against Salzburg alongside the fact that Arsenal made light work of both creating chances and scoring goals in the reverse fixture a week ago and it becomes easy to see the visitors doing well offensively. If we also consider the fact that the aggregate score-line forces the hosts to take risks, then it’s not difficult to feel that visiting goals are a tad more likely than the current prices suggest.