Atalanta vs Dinamo Zagreb Predictions

Atalanta have endured a dismal campaign in the Champions League, but they aren’t out of the competition just yet. They may have taken one point from their first four matches in the group, but with two games to play they are just four points off second. They could cut that gap to a point with a victory in this meeting with Dinamo Zagreb, but that would require a major improvement from the hosts.

The Serie A side have seen their campaign stall in recent weeks, with major problems both at home and in Europe. Atalanta have won once in their last eight games, while they come into this game winless in seven. They lost 3-1 against Juventus at the weekend, shipping three goals in the final 16 minutes. That could cost them again here, as Dinamo have scored three in the last 15 minutes across their last two in Europe – drawing 2-2 and 3-3 with Shakhtar Donetsk.

While Atalanta’s historic Champions League campaign has been a dud, this has been a great season for the visitors. Dinamo Zagreb have scored nine goals in their four Uefa Champions League games this season (W1 D2 L1), two more than they managed in 24 games in their previous four campaigns (seven goals in 2011/12, 2012/13, 2015/16 and 2016/17). That form has left them in the mix to make the top two.

Clinical finishing has helped the Croatian side into that position. Dinamo Zagreb have taken the joint-fewest shots of any team in the Champions League this season (36, joint with Galatasaray); however, they have the best conversion rate of any side, scoring with nine of those 36 shots (25%). That’s bad news for Atalanta, who head into this clash with a dreadful record at the back. In their four games, they’ve conceded over 12 shots per game, with 24% of those converted into goals.

Only KRC Genk (12) have conceded more goals in open play in this season’s Champions League than Atalanta (11). We see that form carrying through to this clash, with over 1.5 Dinamo Zagreb goals our pick for Tuesday’s meeting.

Atalanta are winless in their three matches against Dinamo Zagreb in Europe (D2 L1), including losing 0-4 against the Croatian team in this season’s Champions League. We see these two adding another draw here, especially with Dinamo fresh from two very high-scoring tied matches. A 2-2 draw on Tuesday is our correct score prediction.