Borussia Dortmund vs Newcastle Predictions

• Dortmund have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last eight Champions League games
• The hosts have conceded two and scored once across three European matches this term
• Newcastle have kept back-to-back clean sheets and drew 0-0 at Milan in their last European trip

Dortmund shaken by weekend humbling

Having enjoyed one of their best starts to the season in years, Borussia Dortmund’s title hopes took a hammering in a heavy Der Klassiker defeat on Saturday. Bayern Munich won 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park at the weekend, which is hardly the best preparation for a vital Champions League clash.

Dortmund moved into a great position in Group F in the last round of games, as they ran out 1-0 winners at St James’ Park. That took them into second, level on four points with Newcastle. The pair are two shy of PSG and two clear of AC Milan, so this group of death is finely poised at the halfway point.

Big win can boost Magpies

Newcastle have readjusted after that narrow loss to Dortmund, making big strides on two fronts over the last week. On Wednesday they won 3-0 at Manchester United to make the last eight of the Carabao Cup. While Dortmund were being blown away on Saturday, the Magpies were edging a gritty clash with Arsenal, winning 1-0 thanks to a strong defensive display.

Back-to-back clean sheets against two big rivals is a great way for Newcastle to warm up for this one. They’re back on the road in Europe for the first time since their visit to AC Milan on Matchday 1, where they were able to secure a 0-0 draw. Having looked excellent at the back in their last two games, they should be confident of frustrating Dortmund this week.

Back to basics for hosts

Dortmund had started to put together a solid run ahead of their Der Klassiker defeat. They went into that game having won 1-0 in three of their last four games, including that visit to Tyneside. Becoming stronger at the back has been a feature of Dortmund in Europe this term, as they’ve conceded just twice across their first three games.

In fact, Dortmund have seen under 2.5 goals land in each of their last eight Champions League matches. With a solid Newcastle side visiting in a high-pressure group, it’s hard to see either side risking too much or leaving themselves too open.

Newcastle will be hard to break down in this trip, while Dortmund should go back to basics after their weekend hammering. As good as the Magpies have been, they lack the kind of cutting edge that Bayern possess. Dortmund’s defence can bounce back, while their string of low-scoring games doesn’t suggest Newcastle have much to fear. As a result, under 2.5 goals is the standout option here.