Slovenia vs Cyprus Predictions

• Slovenia have won seven of their last eight home qualifiers or Nations League matches in Ljubljana.
• At least three goals have been scored in Slovenia’s last four matches.
• Cyprus have conceded three goals or more in four of their last seven away contests.
• Josip Ilicic has scored ten goals in his last ten games for club and country.

No reason for Cyprus to ‘shut up shop’ 

Cyprus’ approach to Sunday’s dead-rubber World Cup qualifier in Slovenia will go a long way to deciding how entertaining a contest it becomes.

Nikos Kostenoglou’s side surprised Russia by changing from their usual formation to play with two strikers and press the Group H leaders in a way that caused the hosts some embarrassment on Thursday night.

Three goals in the space of seven second-half minutes spared Russia’s blushes but, for a time – while the game was 1-0, an equaliser looked more likely than a landslide victory.

It remains to be seen if they try to do the same in Ljubljana, where Slovenia have not been beaten in the last two years. A more cautious approach could keep the score down, but wouldn’t really achieve anything as it would probably still leave them bottom of Group H.

Goal rate on the rise in Group H

The average number of goals in this group has been steadily increasing since the fifth round of fixtures and, with nothing on this game for either side, we could see quite an open affair.

That would suit Slovenia’s in-form attacker Josip Ilicic, who has scored seven goals in his last ten appearances.

We make him a value pick to score in what should still turn out to be a comfortable Slovenian win. We expect at least three goals to be scored too,  broadly following the pattern of both team’s qualification programmes, and prefer a 3-1 outcome overall because of the chances Cyprus created in Russia on Thursday.