Bury vs Portsmouth Predictions

Facing League One Portsmouth is not an easy task for any League Two side, though Bury will be feeling confident ahead of this match. The Shakers are in good form at present, as they’ve won each of their last three, while they’ve already recorded some pleasing results against higher-level opposition in this competition.

Not only are Bury ticking along nicely in League Two, where they’ve won each of their last three, which has allowed them to rise to 2^nd in the table, but their performances in this competition have been very encouraging. Ryan Lowe’s men have got on the front foot no matter who they’ve played against and have scored plenty of goals, notching 16 in six matches. They’re also averaging a pleasing 1.74 expected goals for in this competition and come here having stuck five past League One Oxford in the previous round.

Portsmouth have also looked good in this competition, as they won 100% of their group matches before getting the better of both Southend and Peterborough in the knockout rounds. However, their performances against those two weren’t overly encouraging. As they created less than Peterborough, they were fortunate to gain a 1-0 victory, as the fact that they ended the encounter with an expected goals difference of -0.71 suggests. On that occasion, they struggled to get going offensively, while the same can be said for their third-round effort when they recorded just 0.62 expected goals for against the Shrimpers.

Furthermore, while Portsmouth will of course want to pencil in a date at Wembley, this competition is unlikely to be their primary focus at present. Having seen themselves slip from the automatic spots in League One, it’s reasonable to assume that manager Kenny Jackett is more concerned with rebooting their push for promotion, which means that key players could be rested ahead of this match, especially since they have a very winnable game coming up at the weekend.

In contrast, Bury are right on course to secure automatic promotion, so they can afford to have a real go at this game.

In the betting, it is the hosts who make more appeal at the current prices, though backing them to simply come out on top may not be the most lucrative option. Instead, ‘Bury to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ stands out. Recent games in this competition have seen Bury offer more going forward than Portsmouth, and while the visitors certainly won’t roll over, their attacking efforts both in this competition and in League One of late have simply been less than impressive. This lack of forward potency could see them narrowly miss out on a place in the final.