Derby vs Stoke City Predictions

Rams to secure safety

Derby are the best bet to beat Stoke at home in the Championship on Saturday and maintain their Championship status, while at the same time putting the Potters in threat of the drop. The visitors have been poor on the road this season, with just four wins in 22 away games and might need help elsewhere to stay up.

Stoke are one place above Derby in the table, but both teams have lost more games than they’ve won this season. Stoke have 12 wins and 19 defeats, while Derby have 13 wins and 22 losses. In the 129 games between teams in the bottom half of the table, 59 (46%) have been home wins.

Derby maintained their winning run with a 1-0 victory away at Hull last weekend, securing the three points with a second-half goal. They will be pleased to have been priced at 9/4 to win the game.

Stoke may struggle to break down a Derby defence that have kept three clean sheets in their last four home games in the league and the Rams are aiming for a third straight success.

Backing Stoke when they have been underdogs this season would have resulted in a -11.00-unit loss, with just four wins from their 25 games as an underdog.

They have been disappointing in front of goal away from home this season, scoring just 16 goals in 22 games – an average of 0.73 goals a game on the road. They have now lost two straight Championship games without scoring.

Stoke’s defence is also looking vulnerable. They have conceded 37 goals on the road this season in the Championship – an average of 1.68 goals per game from 22 away games – and have failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last eight matches.

Derby may be able to edge out Stoke in a close game, with a 2-1 home win the correct-score pick. Stoke have been in some low-scoring games of late – seven of the last nine have gone under 2.5 goals.

Click here to learn more about Spotlight iQ

Edited by Mark Langdon