Eintracht Frankfurt vs Fortuna Dusseldorf Predictions

Eintracht Frankfurt’s season started a lot earlier than most, with Adi Hutter’s side involved in Europa League action as early as July over the summer. The Eagles’ hard work has now paid off as they progressed through to the Europa League group stages on Thursday by beating Strasbourg 3-0 – a welcome change of pace after their first Bundesliga defeat.

Frankfurt have strengthened their attack further with the addition of Sporting Lisbon forward Bas Dost earlier this week – much needed after the departure of Luka Jovic and Sebastien Haller – and the Dutch forward could make his debut for the club on Sunday. However, he may have to share the spotlight with form man Goncalo Paciencia, who scored his fourth across all competitions last weekend.

Fortuna Dusseldorf’s 19/20 campaign has started as remarkably as their 18/19 season ended. Their 3-1 victory at Werder Bremen was their first opening day win in six years and they have USA international goalkeeper Zack Steffen to thank for that. He produced a league-high 10 saves, which doesn’t say much about their defence, to be awarded the ‘Man of the Match’.

Dusseldorf were then defeated 3-1 at home to Bayer Leverkusen – much more wasn’t to be expected. Friedhelm Funkal will no doubt be content with three points from two games, especially given the sale of his star duo Dodi Lukebakio and Benito Raman over the summer. Last season’s third-top scorer Rouwen Hennings and former-Hannover man Kenan Karaman are doing well to fill those boots.

The coming together of two offensive-focused sides does make us think they’ll be goals in this game. Frankfurt’s attacking record and lack of defensive form was the perfect combination for the goals markets last season and it was Dusseldorf’s defensive (not goalscoring) prowess that surprised most in the 18/19 campaign as well – in fact, they scored just six goals fewer than 5th placed Borussia Monchengladbach.

Both sides’ new-look forward lines hold plenty of goalscoring experience – Bas Dost scored 28 goals for Wolfsburg between 2013-2016, including his first Bundesliga brace against this weekend’s opponents, while the visitors’ Rouwen Hennings has found his feet with four goals across his last seven – and their defensive records could both use a bit of work.

And with neither team under new management, it’s reasonable to assume that stats from last season are a good indicator. Both teams scored in 65% of both Frankfurt’s home and Dusseldorf’s away days in 2018/19 and over 2.5 goals were scored in each of the last four top-flight meetings between them too. Notably, Frankfurt scored seven in a 7-1 win over Dusseldorf at the Commerzbank Arena last season.

Expected goals (xG) show that Dusseldorf were ‘lucky’ in their 3-1 opening day win away to Werder Bremen too, and alongside Frankfurt’s good record at home to them (W17 D6 L1), we like the hosts for another win. We can’t see past Dusseldorf’s leaky defence, and with Funkel’s side conceding three goals in half of their last six away days, we’re backing Frankfurt to win 3-1.